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Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-10-30 Christophe Andrieu , Matti Vihola

To deal with very large datasets a mini-batch version of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for general latent variable models is proposed. For exponential models the algorithm is shown…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-08-30 Tabea Rebafka , Estelle Kuhn , Catherine Matias

The problem of sampling constrained continuous distributions has frequently appeared in many machine/statistical learning models. Many Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling methods have been adapted to handle different types of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Shiwei Lan , Lulu Kang

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

Markov chain Monte Calro methods (MCMC) are commonly used in Bayesian statistics. In the last twenty years, many results have been established for the calculation of the exact convergence rate of MCMC methods. We introduce another rate of…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-02-17 Kengo Kamatani

Monte-Carlo techniques are standard numerical tools for exploring non-Gaussian and multivariate likelihoods. Many variants of the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm have been proposed to increase the sampling efficiency. Motivated by…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2024-10-31 Maximilian Philipp Herzog , Heinrich von Campe , Rebecca Maria Kuntz , Lennart Röver , Björn Malte Schäfer

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample from unnormalized probability distributions and offer guarantees of exact sampling. However, in the continuous case, unfavorable geometry of the target distribution can greatly limit the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-09 Zengyi Li , Yubei Chen , Friedrich T. Sommer

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

We study Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of sample information (EVSI) which measures the expected benefit of gaining additional information for decision making under uncertainty. EVSI is defined as a nested expectation in which…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-10-05 Tomohiko Hironaka , Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda , Howard Thom

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should stop. We consider…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-03-04 James M. Flegal , Lei Gong

In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2024-07-29 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

An efficient sampling method, the pmmLang+RBM, is proposed to compute the quantum thermal average in the interacting quantum particle system. Benefiting from the random batch method (RBM), the pmmLang+RBM reduces the complexity due to the…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-06-16 Xuda Ye , Zhennan Zhou

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-07-27 Roberto Fontana , Francesca Romana Crucinio

The importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm appears to be the universally optimal solution to the problem of sampling the state space of statistical mechanical systems according to the relative importance of configurations for the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2010-06-22 Martin Weigel

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-01-12 Charly Andral

We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-02-27 Brendon J. Brewer , Livia B. Pártay , Gábor Csányi

Based on the central limit theorem, we discuss the problem of evaluation of the statistical error of Monte Carlo calculations using a time discretized diffusion process. We present a robust and practical method to determine the effective…

计算物理 · 物理学 2017-02-22 François Delyon , Bernard Bernu , Markus Holzmann