相关论文: A fast Monte-Carlo method with a Reduced Basis of …

The development of efficient numerical methods for kinetic equations with stochastic parameters is a challenge due to the high dimensionality of the problem. Recently we introduced a multiscale control variate strategy which is capable to…

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

In this work, we develop a reduced-basis approach for the efficient computation of parametrized expected values, for a large number of parameter values, using the control variate method to reduce the variance. Two algorithms are proposed to…

We present a novel control variate technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) estimation of expectations involving solutions to stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our method integrates a primary fine-time-step…

In this paper, we begin our discussion with some of the well-known methods available in the literature for the estimation of the parameters of a univariate/multivariate stable distribution. Based on the available methods, a new hybrid…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

Least squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by…

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

We give a probabilistic interpretation of the Monte Carlo scheme proposed by Fahim, Touzi and Warin [Ann. Appl. Probab. 21 (2011) 1322-1364] for fully nonlinear parabolic PDEs, and hence generalize it to the path-dependent (or…

We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to…

The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

Software engineers often have to estimate the performance of a software system before having full knowledge of the system parameters, such as workload and operational profile. These uncertain parameters inevitably affect the accuracy of…

This paper addresses optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients. In particular, the robust control problem and the average control problem are considered for a tracking type cost…

The main focus of this article is to provide a mathematical study of the algorithm proposed in \cite{boyaval2010variance} where the authors proposed a variance reduction technique for the computation of parameter-dependent expectations…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…