相关论文: Real Output Costs of Financial Crises: A Loss Dist…

For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks,…

Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise…

The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…

Using Croatian data and the IMF's Natural Disaster Debt Dynamic Tool, this paper assesses how public debt adjusts to extreme events in a small open economy. We compare debt paths under baseline and stress scenarios, the latter simulating a…

The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent…

It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…

The credit crisis roiling the world's financial markets will likely take years and entire careers to fully understand and analyze. A short empirical investigation of the current trends, however, demonstrates that the losses in certain…

Financial global crisis has devastating impacts to economies since early XX century and continues to impose increasing collateral damages for governments, enterprises, and society in general. Up to now, all efforts to obtain efficient…

With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…

The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions…

This study re-examines the impact of natural disasters on economic growth in the perspective of developed and developing countries. Based on panel data consisting of developing and developed countries over the period 1990-2019 and using…

In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…

Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we…

There are numerous geo-climatic and human factors that contribute to the occurrence of natural disasters in the real-world scenario. Besides the study of causes and preconditions of such calamities, post-disaster analysis is essential for…

Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating…

A controversy involving loan loss provisions in banks concerns their relationship with the business cycle. While international accounting standards for recognizing provisions (incurred loss model) would presumably be pro-cyclical,…

There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…

Global catastrophic risk events, such as nuclear war, pose a severe threat to the stability of international financial systems. As evidenced by even less severe scenarios like the Great Recession, an economic failure can propagate through…

Regulatory requirements dictate that financial institutions must calculate risk capital (funds that must be retained to cover future losses) at least annually. Procedures for doing this have been well-established for many years, but recent…