相关论文: The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based …

Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…

A gap in the total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements between ACRIM-1 and ACRIM-2 led to the ongoing debate on the presence or not of a secular trend between the minima preceding cycles 22 (in 1986) and 23 (1996). It was recently proposed…

We examine the solar-cycle variation of the power in the low-degree helioseismic modes by looking at binned power spectra from 45 years of observations with the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network, which provides a more robust estimate of…

Aims. We present further development of the rolling root mean square (rRMS) algorithm. These improvements consist of an increase in computational speed and an estimation of the uncertainty on the recovered diagnostics. This improvement is…

The analysis of the observations of solar activity indexes SSN (NOAA Sunspot Numbers), the radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (F10.7) and the solar constant (TSI) during the cycles 22 - 24 is presented. We found a decrease of the…

Considering the grid manager's point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly…

Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…

The forecasting of local GIC effects has largely relied on the forecasting of dB/dt as a proxy and, to date, little attention has been paid to directly forecasting the geoelectric field or GICs themselves. We approach this problem with…

Solar flare forecasting research using machine learning (ML) has focused on high resolution magnetogram data from the SDO/HMI era covering Solar Cycle 24 and the start of Solar Cycle 25, with some efforts looking back to SOHO/MDI for data…

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…

The large (X-ray class > M1) and very large (X-ray class >X1) flares (according to the observations of GOES-15 and Preliminary data from Current Catalog of Flare Events) in solar activity cycle 24 were analyzed. The monthly average values…

Space weather, driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), poses significant risks to technological systems. Accurately forecasting these events and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere remains a challenge because of the…

The analysis of long-term variations of several solar activity indices (AI) since in last 40 years has been performed. We studied the AI which characterize the fluxes from different areas in solar atmosphere. Our consideration of mutual…

We discuss a prediction of the solar activity on a short time-scale applying the method based on a combination of a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network which serves as a…

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or degree of relationship between daily terrestrial cosmic rays intensity and three characteristics of about evolution of solar corona, like a number of…

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…

Further development of the work of Obridko et al. [1] based on recent data confirms the assumption that the 25th cycle of solar activity is a medium-low cycle. Its height is expected to be $125.2\pm5.6$, and the expected date of the maximum…

The forthcoming solar cycle (SC) 25 was beleived to be rather low when using the sunspot number (SN) as a measurement of the level of activity. The most popular prediction was made by the panel of NASA in 2019, including works based on…

It is assumed that the solar cell efficiency of PV device is closely related to the solar irradiance, considered the solar parameter Global Solar Irradiance (G) and the meteorological parameters like daily data of Earth Skin Temperature…

We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22.…