相关论文: The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based …
Solar irradiance forecasts can be dynamic and unreliable due to changing weather conditions. Near the Arctic circle, this also translates into a distinct set of further challenges. This work is forecasting solar irradiance with Norwegian…
Solar based electricity generations have experienced strong and impactful growth in recent years. The regulation, scheduling, dispatching, and unit commitment of intermittent solar power is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…
We discuss one important aspect of Waldmeier effect which says that the stronger cycles rise rapidly than weaker cycles. We studied four different data set of solar activity indices, and find strong linear correlation between rise rates and…
Sunspot Cycle 25 over 3 years past the cycle minimum of December 2019. At this point, curve-fitting becomes reliable and consistently indicates a maximum sunspot number of 135+/-10 - slightly larger than Cycle 24's maximum of 116.4, but…
The solar activity in the current, that is, the 24-th, sunspot cycle is analyzed. Cyclic variations in the sunspot number (SSN) and radiation fluxes in various spectral ranges have been estimated in comparison with the general level of the…
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare…
Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently,…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
The chromospheric Lyman-alpha line of neutral hydrogen (\lya; 1216\AA) is the strongest emission line in the solar spectrum. Fluctuations in \lya\ are known to drive changes in planetary atmospheres, although few instruments have had the…
A correlative study between the geomagnetic indices and the peak values of various plasma and field parameters during rising, maximum and decay phases as well as during complete solar cycle 23 have been presented. We have also presented the…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
We present the power spectrum of solar irradiance during 1985 and 1987 obtained from the ACRIM project from time scales of minutes to months. At low frequency the spectra are Lorentzian. At higher frequencies they are proportional to…
The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…
We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
This paper compares different forecasting methods and models to predict average values of solar irradiance with a sampling time of 15 min over a prediction horizon of up to 3 h. The methods considered only require historic solar irradiance…