相关论文: Causal modeling and inference for electricity mark…

For a cost efficient design of a future renewable European electricity system, the placement of renewable generation capacity will seek to exploit locations with good resource quality, that is for instance onshore wind in countries…

The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…

We describe a new framework for causal inference and its application to return time series. In this system, causal relationships are represented as logical formulas, allowing us to test arbitrarily complex hypotheses in a computationally…

We introduce a general, simple, and computationally efficient framework for predicting day-ahead supply and demand merit-order curves, from which both point and probabilistic electricity price forecasts can be derived. We conduct a rigorous…

This paper develops a strategic model of trade between two regions in which, depending on the relation among output, financial resources and transportation costs, the adjustment of prices towards an equilibrium is studied. We derive…

The problem of dynamic pricing of electricity in a retail market is considered. A Stackelberg game is used to model interactions between a retailer and its customers; the retailer sets the day-ahead hourly price of electricity and consumers…

Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this…

Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are forwards on the spread between an area price and the system price. Together with the system price forwards, these products are used to hedge the area price risk in the Nordic electricity market. The CfDs…

Recent studies provide evidence that decomposing the electricity price into the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) and the remaining part, predicting both separately, and then combining their forecasts can bring significant accuracy gains…

In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that…

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process…

Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…

Liberalization of electricity markets has increasingly created the need for understanding the volatility and correlation structure between electricity and financial markets. This work reveals the existence of structural changes in…

The observed proportionality between nominal prices and average embodied energies cannot be interpreted with conventional economic theory. A model is presented that places energy transfers as the focal point of scarcity based on the idea…

In wholesale electricity markets, prices fluctuate widely from hour to hour and electricity generators price-hedge their output using longer-term contracts, such as monthly base futures. Consequently, the incentives they face to drive up…

Efficiently accommodating uncertain renewable resources in wholesale electricity markets is among the foremost priorities of market regulators in the US, UK and EU nations. However, existing deterministic market designs fail to internalize…

The paradox of the energy transition is that the low marginal costs of new renewable energy sources (RES) drag electricity prices down and discourage investments in flexible productions that are needed to compensate for the lack of…

We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the…

We propose a dynamical model of price formation on a spatial market where sellers and buyers are placed on the nodes of a graph, and the distribution of the buyers depends on the positions and prices of the sellers. We find that, depending…

In the first part of this paper (Sections 1-4), we study a standard exchange economy model with Cobb-Douglas type consumers and give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an odd period cycle in the Walras-Samuelson…