相关论文: Causal modeling and inference for electricity mark…
In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the…
Purpose: Trading on electricity markets occurs such that the price settlement takes place before delivery, often day-ahead. In practice, these prices are highly volatile as they largely depend upon a range of variables such as electricity…
Recent research finds that forecasting electricity prices is very relevant. In many applications, it might be interesting to predict daily electricity prices by using their own lags or renewable energy sources. However, the recent turmoil…
Relationships between the energy and the finance markets are increasingly important. Understanding these relationships is vital for policymakers and other stakeholders as the world faces challenges such as satisfying humanity's increasing…
Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation…
Continuous intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in short-term trading and balancing, yet decision-making under rapidly evolving price dynamics remains challenging. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework…
This paper proposes a novel method for demand forecasting in a pricing context. Here, modeling the causal relationship between price as an input variable to demand is crucial because retailers aim to set prices in a (profit) optimal manner…
We consider a 2-dimensional marked Hawkes process with increasing baseline intensity in order to model prices on electricity intraday markets. This model allows to represent different empirical facts such as increasing market activity,…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
Modeling power market dynamics is increasingly challenging, as both spatial and temporal imbalances of demand and supply are becoming more pronounced with higher shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). Therefore, a high-resolution…
In this paper we propose a tractable quadratic programming formulation for calculating the equilibrium term structure of electricity prices. We rely on a theoretical model described in [21], but extend it so that it reflects actually traded…
In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…
Modeling price risks is crucial for economic decision making in energy markets. Besides the risk of a single price, the dependence structure of multiple prices is often relevant. We therefore propose a generic and easy-to-implement method…
Electricity markets often utilize the DC approximation of the AC power flow equations to facilitate solving an otherwise complex nonconvex optimization problem. These DC power flow equations have analogies to DC circuit laws such as…
The aim of the present work is analysing and understanding the dynamics of the prices of companies, depending on whether they are included or excluded from the STOXX Europe 600 Index. For this reason, data regarding the companies of the…
Climate (change) affects the prices of goods and services in different countries or regions differently. Simply relying on aggregate measures or summary statistics, such as the impact of average country temperature changes on HICP headline…
The electricity grid is expected to require vast investments due to the decarbonization-by-electrification trend, calling for a change in grid tariff design which provides proper incentives for reducing peak loads. However, price signals…
Electrification is contributing to substantial growth in U.S. commercial and industrial loads, but the cost and Scope 2 carbon emission implications of this load growth are opaque for both power consumers and utilities. This work describes…
Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable efficient battery storage optimization, and facilitate demand…
Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a…