相关论文: Pricing Weather Derivatives for Extreme Events

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

We introduce signature payoffs, a family of path-dependent derivatives that are given in terms of the signature of the price path of the underlying asset. We show that these derivatives are dense in the space of continuous payoffs, a result…

From environmental sciences to finance, there is a growing demand for methods that can assess the risks of extreme events beyond those observed in available data. Extrapolating extreme events beyond the range of the data is not obvious.…

Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…

Travel time derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from road travel times, serving as an underlying asset that cannot be directly traded. Within the transportation domain, these derivatives are proposed as a more…

This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…

Max-stable random fields play a central role in modeling extreme value phenomena. We obtain an explicit formula for the conditional probability in general max-linear models, which include a large class of max-stable random fields. As a…

Due to complex physical phenomena, the distribution of heavy rainfall events is difficult to model spatially. Physically based numerical models can often provide physically coherent spatial patterns, but may miss some important…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

There are many studies on development of models for analyzing some derivatives such as credit default swaps .

Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…

Extreme values modeling has attracting the attention of researchers in diverse areas such as the environment, engineering, or finance. Multivariate extreme value distributions are particularly suitable to model the tails of multidimensional…

We consider insurance derivatives depending on an external physical risk process, for example a temperature in a low dimensional climate model. We assume that this process is correlated with a tradable financial asset. We derive optimal…

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Recent extreme value theory literature has seen significant emphasis on the modelling of spatial extremes, with comparatively little consideration of spatio-temporal extensions. This neglects an important feature of extreme events: their…

Extreme events jeopardize power network operations, causing beyond-design failures and massive supply interruptions. Existing market designs fail to internalize and systematically assess the risk of extreme and rare events. Efficiently…

We investigate the problem of pricing derivatives under a fractional stochastic volatility model. We obtain an approximate expression of the derivative price where the stochastic volatility can be composed of deterministic functions of time…

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…