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We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

We consider the problem of assessing whether, in an individual case, there is a causal relationship between an observed exposure and a response variable. When data are available on similar individuals we may be able to estimate prospective…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-11-15 Monica Musio , Philip Dawid

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

Multilabel data should be analysed for label dependence before applying multilabel models. Independence between multilabel data labels cannot be measured directly from the label values due to their dependence on the set of covariates…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-27 Laurence A. F. Park , Jesse Read

We introduce a nonresponse mechanism for multivariate missing data in which each study variable and its nonresponse indicator are conditionally independent given the remaining variables and their nonresponse indicators. This is a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-09-05 Mauricio Sadinle , Jerome P. Reiter

We show that the ability to consider counterfactual situations is a necessary assumption of Bell's theorem, and that, to allow Bell inequality violations while maintaining all other assumptions, we just require certain measurement choices…

量子物理 · 物理学 2024-12-25 Jonte R. Hance

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-21 Razieh Nabi , Rohit Bhattacharya , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

Causal discovery from data affected by unobserved variables is an important but difficult problem to solve. The effects that unobserved variables have on the relationships between observed variables are more complex in nonlinear cases than…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-07 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

When observational data is available from practical studies and a directed cyclic graph for how various variables affect each other is known based on substantive understanding of the process, we consider a problem in which a control plan of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-06-26 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Current pre-trained language models have enabled remarkable improvements in downstream tasks, but it remains difficult to distinguish effects of statistical correlation from more systematic logical reasoning grounded on understanding of the…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2022-12-08 Jiaxuan Li , Lang Yu , Allyson Ettinger

In observational causal inference, exact covariate matching plays two statistical roles: (i) it effectively controls for bias due to measured confounding; (ii) it justifies assumption-free inference based on randomization tests. This paper…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-02 Kevin Guo , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-08 Arash Nasr-Esfahany , Mohammad Alizadeh , Devavrat Shah

For exchangeable data, mixture models are an extremely useful tool for density estimation due to their attractive balance between smoothness and flexibility. When additional covariate information is present, mixture models can be extended…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-01 Sara Wade , Vanda Inacio , Sonia Petrone

Displaying confidence scores in human-AI interaction has been shown to help build trust between humans and AI systems. However, most existing research uses only the confidence score as a form of communication. As confidence scores are just…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-03-13 Thao Le , Tim Miller , Ronal Singh , Liz Sonenberg

The problem of measuring conditional dependence between two random phenomena arises when a third one (a confounder) has a potential influence on the amount of information between them. A typical issue in this challenging problem is the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-12 Ferran de Cabrera , Marc Vilà-Insa , Jaume Riba

Counterfactuals are a concept inherited from the field of logic and in general attain to the existence of causal relations between sentences or events. In particular, this concept has been introduced also in the context of interpretability…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-01-23 Pierluigi Francesco De Paola , Jared Miller , Alessandro Borri , Alessia Paglialonga , Fabrizio Dabbene

A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-31 Oliver Dukes , Ilya Shpitser , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Concept-based explanation approach is a popular model interpertability tool because it expresses the reasons for a model's predictions in terms of concepts that are meaningful for the domain experts. In this work, we study the problem of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-25 Mohammad Taha Bahadori , David E. Heckerman

The principal stratification has become a popular tool to address a broad class of causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with non-compliance and truncation-by-death problems. The causal effects within principal strata which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Yangbo He