相关论文: Confounding of three binary-variables counterfactu…

Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that…

Standard measures of effect, including the risk ratio, the odds ratio, and the risk difference, are associated with a number of well-described shortcomings, and no consensus exists about the conditions under which investigators should…

The fundamental problem of causal inference - that the counterfactual outcome for any individual is never observed - has shaped the entire methodology of the field. Every existing approach substitutes assumptions for missing data:…

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Spatial confounding is a fundamental issue in spatial regression models which arises because spatial random effects, included to approximate unmeasured spatial variation, are typically not independent of covariates in the model. This can…

We wish to test whether a real-valued variable $Z$ has explanatory power, in addition to a multivariate variable $X$, for a binary variable $Y$. Thus, we are interested in testing the hypothesis $\mathbb{P}(Y=1\, | \, X,Z)=\mathbb{P}(Y=1\,…

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is challenging. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to…

We consider the problem of estimating counterfactual quantities when prior knowledge is available in the form of disjunctive statements. These include disjunction of conditions (e.g., "the patient is more than 60 years of age") as well as…

This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate unconditional quantile effects (UQE) in a data combination model. The UQE measures the effect of a marginal counterfactual change in the unconditional distribution of a covariate on quantiles…

In this paper we look at popular fairness methods that use causal counterfactuals. These methods capture the intuitive notion that a prediction is fair if it coincides with the prediction that would have been made if someone's race, gender…

We propose a novel framework for conducting causal inference based on counterfactual densities. While the current paradigm of causal inference is mostly focused on estimating average treatment effects (ATEs), which restricts the analysis to…

Given an observational study with $n$ independent but heterogeneous units, our goal is to learn the counterfactual distribution for each unit using only one $p$-dimensional sample per unit containing covariates, interventions, and outcomes.…

This note has been updated (April, 2020) to respond to "Towards Clarifying the Theory of the Deconfounder" by Yixin Wang, David M. Blei (arXiv:2003.04948). This original note, posted in January, 2020, is meant to complement our previous…

This work explores the effects of relevant and irrelevant boolean variables on the accuracy of classifiers. The analysis uses the assumption that the variables are conditionally independent given the class, and focuses on a natural family…

Deep neural network based question answering (QA) models are neither robust nor explainable in many cases. For example, a multiple-choice QA model, tested without any input of question, is surprisingly "capable" to predict the most of…

We consider a causal effect that is confounded by an unobserved variable, but with observed proxy variables of the confounder. We show that, with at least two independent proxy variables satisfying a certain rank condition, the causal…

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to…

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of…

Retrospective causal questions ask what would have happened to an observed individual had they received a different treatment. We study the problem of estimating $\mu(x,y)=\mathbb{E}[Y(1)\mid X=x,Y(0)=y]$, the expected counterfactual…

It is shown, with two sets of indicators that separately load on two distinct factors, independent of one another conditional on the past, that if it is the case that at least one of the factors causally affects the other, then, in many…