相关论文: Predicting growth fluctuation in network economy

Social employment, which is mostly carried by firms of different types, determines the prosperity and stability of a country. As time passing, the fluctuations of firm employment can reflect the process of creating or destroying jobs.…

This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and…

Two decades of studies have found significant regional differences in the timing of transitions in national business cycles and their durations. Earlier studies partly detect regional synchronization during business cycle expansions and…

In this chapter, an input-output economic model with multiple interactive economic systems is considered. The model captures the multi-dimensional nature of the economic sectors or industries in each economic system, the interdependencies…

The latest financial crisis has painfully revealed the dangers arising from a globally interconnected financial system. Conventional approaches based on the notion of the existence of equilibrium and those which rely on statistical…

We survey systemic risks to financial markets and present a high-level description of an algorithm that measures systemic risk in terms of coupled networks.

We develop a new framework for modeling innovation networks which evolve over time. The nodes in the network represent firms, whereas the directed links represent unilateral interactions between the firms. Both nodes and links evolve…

With a steadily growing human population and rapid advancements in technology, the global human network is increasing in size and connection density. This growth exacerbates networked global threats and can lead to unexpected consequences…

We analyze the probability distribution for entropy production rates of trajectories evolving on a class of out-of-equilibrium kinetic networks. These networks can serve as simple models for driven dynamical systems, which are of particular…

We develop a structural default model for interconnected financial institutions in a probabilistic framework. For all possible network structures we characterize the joint default distribution of the system using Bayesian network…

With the emerging of new networks, such as wireless sensor networks, vehicle networks, P2P networks, cloud computing, mobile Internet, or social networks, the network dynamics and complexity expands from system design, hardware, software,…

We present a new approach to estimating the interdependence of industries in an economy by applying data science solutions. By exploiting interfirm buyer--seller network data, we show that the problem of estimating the interdependence of…

This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using…

During a financial crisis, the capital markets network frequently exhibits a high correlation between returns. We developed a network analysis framework based on daily returns from 42 countries to determine systemic stability. Our network…

A key element to understand complex systems is the relationship between the spatial scale of investigation and the structure of the interrelation among its elements. When it comes to economic systems, it is now well-known that the…

In this paper, we assess how the stability of financial networks is affected by interconnectedness considering its tiniest variation: the edge. We compute the impact of edges as the percentage difference in the systemic risk (SR) of the…

Network science provides an indispensable theoretical framework for studying the structure and function of real complex systems. Different network models are often used for finding the rules that govern their evolution, whereby the correct…

We consider a market where many agents trade many different types of products with each other. We model development of collective modes in this market, and quantify these by fluctuations that scale with time with a Hurst exponent of about…

This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First,…

We theorize the financial health of a company and the risk of its default. A company is financially healthy as long as its equilibrium in the financial system is maintained, which depends on the cost attributable to the probability that…