相关论文: Corrected portmanteau tests for VAR models with ti…

In this paper we derive the asymptotic distribution of normalized residual empirical autocovariances and autocorrelations under weak assumptions on the noise. We propose new portmanteau statistics for vector autoregressive moving-average…

It is an important task in the literature to check whether a fitted autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is adequate, while the currently used tests may suffer from the size distortion problem when the underlying autoregressive models…

In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…

Variational autoencoders employ an amortized inference model to approximate the posterior of latent variables. However, such amortized variational inference faces two challenges: (1) the limited posterior expressiveness of fully-factorized…

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for causal inference, and justify simple comparisons across treatment groups. Regression adjustment provides a convenient way to incorporate covariate information for additional efficiency. This…

Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…

This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and…

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers…

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach for image generation proposes autoregressive processing across hierarchical scales, decoding multiple tokens per scale in parallel. This method achieves high-quality generation while…

The identification of the lag length for vector autoregressive models by mean of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Partial Autoregressive and Correlation Matrices (PAM and PCM hereafter) is studied in the framework of processes with time…

Quantitative portfolio allocation requires the accurate and tractable estimation of covariances between a large number of assets, whose histories can greatly vary in length. Such data are said to follow a monotone missingness pattern, under…

We study nonlinear serial dependence tests for non-Gaussian time series and residuals of dynamic models based on portmanteau statistics involving nonlinear autocovariances. A new test with an asymptotic $\chi^2$ distribution is introduced…

Consider a regression model with infinitely many parameters and time series errors. We are interested in choosing weights for averaging across generalized least squares (GLS) estimators obtained from a set of approximating models. However,…

We study goodness-of-fit testing for non-causal autoregressive time series with non-Gaussian stable noise. To model time series exhibiting sharp spikes or occasional bursts of outlying observations, the exponent of the non-Gaussian stable…

Previous comparisons of ordinary least squares with Newey-West standard errors (OLS-NW) and Prais-Winsten (PW) regression in multiple-group interrupted time series analysis have been limited to first-order autoregressive (AR[1]) errors…

Wasserstein autoregression provides a robust framework for modeling serial dependence among probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in economics, finance, and climate science. In this paper, we develop portmanteau-type…

Determining possible failure scenarios is a critical step in the evaluation of autonomous vehicle systems. Real-world vehicle testing is commonly employed for autonomous vehicle validation, but the costs and time requirements are high.…