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A key problem in statistical modeling is model selection, how to choose a model at an appropriate level of complexity. This problem appears in many settings, most prominently in choosing the number ofclusters in mixture models or the number…

机器学习 · 统计学 2011-08-05 Samuel J. Gershman , David M. Blei

Bayesian and frequentist criteria fundamentally differ, but often posterior and sampling distributions agree asymptotically (e.g., Gaussian with same covariance). For the corresponding single-draw experiment, we characterize the frequentist…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-07-04 David M. Kaplan , Longhao Zhuo

Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-07-04 Siddhartha Chib , Todd A. Kuffner

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-06 Martin Jankowiak

Real-life statistical samples are often plagued by selection bias, which complicates drawing conclusions about the general population. When learning causal relationships between the variables is of interest, the sample may be assumed to be…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-11-15 Angelos P. Armen , Robin J. Evans

While there have been a lot of recent developments in the context of Bayesian model selection and variable selection for high dimensional linear models, there is not much work in the presence of change point in literature, unlike the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-26 Nilabja Guha , Jyotishka Datta

Estimating the parameters from $k$ independent Bin$(n,p)$ random variables, when both parameters $n$ and $p$ are unknown, is relevant to a variety of applications. It is particularly difficult if $n$ is large and $p$ is small. Over the past…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-09-10 Laura Fee Schneider , Thomas Staudt , Axel Munk

In recent years, model collapse has become a critical issue in language model training, making it essential to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon. In this paper, we investigate recursive parametric model training…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-23 Shirong Xu , Hengzhi He , Guang Cheng

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

In this paper, we study inference for high-dimensional data characterized by small sample sizes relative to the dimension of the data. In particular, we provide an infinite-dimensional framework to study statistical models that involve…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-02-25 Jim Kuelbs , Anand N. Vidyashankar

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-05 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Jack Jewson

Recently, Tibshirani et al. (2016) proposed a method for making inferences about parameters defined by model selection, in a typical regression setting with normally distributed errors. Here, we study the large sample properties of this…

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2018-06-27 Leon B. Lucy

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

In model selection literature, two classes of criteria perform well asymptotically in different situations: Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (as a representative) is consistent in selection when the true model is finite dimensional…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-02-03 Wei Liu , Yuhong Yang

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-27 Alexandre René , André Longtin

Background: Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time…

分子网络 · 定量生物学 2018-01-15 Ian Vernon , Junli Liu , Michael Goldstein , James Rowe , Jen Topping , Keith Lindsey

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation of a probability density $p$ based on a random sample of size $n$ from this density using a hierarchical prior. The prior consists, for instance, of prior weights on the regularity of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Jüri Lember , Aad van der Vaart