相关论文: Epidemiological dynamics of the 2009 Influenza A(H…

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data…

We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and May 2014. The data were…

For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a…

Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and…

When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, analogous to mechanistic epidemic models, the growth rate can…

The attack of novel avian influenza (H7N9) in east China caused a serious health crisis and public panic. In this paper, we empirically analyze the onset patterns of human cases of the novel avian influenza and observe several spatial and…

The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several…

Pandemic outbreak creates a life threatening situation around the world and for a while it feels as if it slows down the world. A lot of effort is being taken to mitigate the spread of the pandemics. The main objective of this paper is to…

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…

Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…

In this work we analyze the post monsoon Dengue outbreaks by analyzing the transient and long term dynamics of Dengue incidences and its environmental correlates in Ahmedabad city in western India from 2005-2012. We calculate the…

The paper describes a method to understand time required to vaccinate against viruses in total as well as subpopulations. As a demonstration, a model based estimate for time required to vaccinate H1N1 in India, given its administrative…

In this work we describe a non-parametric disease model that links the temporal change of the prevalence of an infectious disease to the incidence and the recovery rates. The model is only based on the common epidemiological measures…

This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…

Background: The pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) is a serious on-going global public crisis. Understanding its spreading dynamics is of fundamental importance for both public health and scientific researches. Recent studies have focused…

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…

The data of the 2009 A(H1N1) epidemic in Istanbul, Turkey is unique in terms of the collected data, which include not only the hospitalization but also the fatality information recorded during the pandemic. The analysis of this data…

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…

Objectives Influenza outbreaks have been widely studied. However, the patterns between influenza and religious festivals remained unexplored. This study examined the patterns of influenza and Hanukkah in Israel, and that of influenza and…