相关论文: Trial factors for the look elsewhere effect in hig…

Policy decisions often depend on evidence generated elsewhere. We take a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to choosing where to experiment to optimize external validity. We frame external validity through a policy lens, developing a…

Leveraging the large body of work devoted in recent years to describe redundancy and synergy in multivariate interactions among random variables, we propose a novel approach to quantify cooperative effects in feature importance, one of the…

It is generally believed that any particle to be discovered will have a TeV-order mass. Given its great mass, it must have a large decay width. Therefore, the interference effect will be very common if they and the Standard-Model (SM)…

Quantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they…

It is well known that the effect of quantum nonlocality, as witnessed by violation of a Bell inequality, can be observed even when relaxing the assumption of measurement independence, i.e. allowing for the source to be partially correlated…

Determining and measuring cause-effect relationships is fundamental to most scientific studies of natural phenomena. The notion of causation is distinctly different from correlation which only looks at association of trends or patterns in…

In a very high-dimensional vector space, two randomly-chosen vectors are almost orthogonal with high probability. Starting from this observation, we develop a statistical factor model, the random factor model, in which factors are chosen at…

It is often claimed that the fundamental laws of physics are deterministic and time-symmetric and that therefore our experience of the passage of time is an illusion. This paper will critically discuss these claims and show that they are…

A causal set is a partially ordered set on a countably infinite ground-set such that each element is above finitely many others. A natural extension of a causal set is an enumeration of its elements which respects the order. We bring…

The problem of detecting the presence of a signal that can lead to a disaster is studied. A decision-maker collects data sequentially over time. At some point in time, called the change point, the distribution of data changes. This change…

Tests for proportional hazards assumption concerning specified covariates or groups of covariates are proposed. The class of alternatives is wide: log-hazard rates under different values of covariates may cross, approach, go away. The data…

Goal of these proceedings is to introduce a method based on event weighting in particle physics experiments. Weighting means that events are not just counted as integer numbers but are assigned a weight factor according to their importance…

Applied researchers are increasingly interested in whether and how treatment effects vary in randomized evaluations, especially variation not explained by observed covariates. We propose a model-free approach for testing for the presence of…

The determination of magnitudes of basic parameters of the high energy elastic scattering amplitude are examined at small momentum transfers with taking account of the Coulomb-hadron interference effects.

When does consulting one information source raise the value of another, and when does it diminish it? We study this question for Bayesian decision-makers facing finite actions. The interaction decomposes into two opposing forces: a…

We consider the problem of indirect comparison, where a treatment arm of interest is absent by design in one randomized controlled trial but available in the other. The former is the target trial, and the latter is the source trial. The…

Identifying the effects of causes and causes of effects is vital in virtually every scientific field. Often, however, the needed probabilities may not be fully identifiable from the data sources available. This paper shows how partial…

This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…

The diffusive motion of overdamped Brownian particles in tilted piecewise linear pontentials is considered. It is shown that the enhancement of diffusion coefficient by an external static force is quite sensitive to the symmetry of periodic…

Various measures can be used to estimate bias or unfairness in a predictor. Previous work has already established that some of these measures are incompatible with each other. Here we show that, when groups differ in prevalence of the…