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This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key…

概率论 · 数学 2025-07-10 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization has long been a challenging problem that remains largely unsolved. Gaussian processes (GP), as popular probabilistic model classes, especially in the small data regime, presume strong OOD…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-19 Xilong Zhao , Siyuan Bian , Yaoyun Zhang , Yuliang Zhang , Qinying Gu , Xinbing Wang , Chenghu Zhou , Nanyang Ye

Current work in lexical distributed representations maps each word to a point vector in low-dimensional space. Mapping instead to a density provides many interesting advantages, including better capturing uncertainty about a representation…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2015-05-04 Luke Vilnis , Andrew McCallum

The kernel exponential family is a rich class of distributions, which can be fit efficiently and with statistical guarantees by score matching. Being required to choose a priori a simple kernel such as the Gaussian, however, limits its…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-01-15 Li Wenliang , Danica J. Sutherland , Heiko Strathmann , Arthur Gretton

We give a highly efficient "semi-agnostic" algorithm for learning univariate probability distributions that are well approximated by piecewise polynomial density functions. Let $p$ be an arbitrary distribution over an interval $I$ which is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-05-15 Siu-On Chan , Ilias Diakonikolas , Rocco A. Servedio , Xiaorui Sun

We study the complexity of learning mixtures of separated Gaussians with common unknown bounded covariance matrix. Specifically, we focus on learning Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) on $\mathbb{R}^d$ of the form $P= \sum_{i=1}^k w_i…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-23 Ilias Diakonikolas , Daniel M. Kane , Thanasis Pittas , Nikos Zarifis

The Gaussian mixture model is widely used in unsupervised learning, owing to its simplicity and interpretability. However, a fundamental limitation of the classical Gaussian mixture model is that it forces each observation to belong to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-27 Huan Qing

We consider the problem of approximating a general Gaussian location mixture by finite mixtures. The minimum order of finite mixtures that achieve a prescribed accuracy (measured by various $f$-divergences) is determined within constant…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-08 Yun Ma , Yihong Wu , Pengkun Yang

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

Analyzing neural network dynamics via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is crucial to building theoretical foundations for deep learning. Previous work has analyzed structured inputs within the \textit{hidden manifold model}, often under…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Jaeyong Bae , Hawoong Jeong

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

Diffusion models are distinguished by their exceptional generative performance, particularly in producing high-quality samples through iterative denoising. While current theory suggests that the number of denoising steps required for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-08 Gen Li , Changxiao Cai , Yuting Wei

Generalised linear models for multi-class classification problems are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern machine learning tasks. In this manuscript, we characterise the learning of a mixture of $K$ Gaussians with generic means…

We consider the problem of identifying the parameters of an unknown mixture of two arbitrary $d$-dimensional gaussians from a sequence of independent random samples. Our main results are upper and lower bounds giving a computationally…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-05-19 Moritz Hardt , Eric Price

Data sets are growing in complexity thanks to the increasing facilities we have nowadays to both generate and store data. This poses many challenges to machine learning that are leading to the proposal of new methods and paradigms, in order…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-12-04 Irene Córdoba , Concha Bielza , Pedro Larrañaga

High dimensional data can have a surprising property: pairs of data points may be easily separated from each other, or even from arbitrary subsets, with high probability using just simple linear classifiers. However, this is more of a rule…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-15 Oliver J. Sutton , Qinghua Zhou , Alexander N. Gorban , Ivan Y. Tyukin

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

This paper proposes a novel method for deep learning based on the analytical convolution of multidimensional Gaussian mixtures. In contrast to tensors, these do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality and allow for a compact…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-21 Adam Celarek , Pedro Hermosilla , Bernhard Kerbl , Timo Ropinski , Michael Wimmer

We consider the problem of clustering mixtures of mean-separated Gaussians in high dimensions. We are given samples from a mixture of $k$ identity covariance Gaussians, so that the minimum pairwise distance between any two pairs of means is…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2021-12-02 Jerry Li , Allen Liu

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin