相关论文: A simple model of mortality trends aiming at unive…

Real world observational data, together with causal inference, allow the estimation of causal effects when randomized controlled trials are not available. To be accepted into practice, such predictive models must be validated for the…

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…

We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…

We consider planning longitudinal covariate measurements in follow-up studies where covariates are time-varying. We assume that the entire cohort cannot be selected for longitudinal measurements due to financial limitations and study how a…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…

We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

The concept of random deaths in a computational model for population dynamics is critically examined. We claim that it is just an artifact, albeit useful, of computational models to limit the size of the populations and has no biological…

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…

We propose a novel frailty model with change points applying random effects to a Cox proportional hazard model to adjust the heterogeneity between clusters. Because the frailty model includes random effects, the parameters are estimated…

In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…

Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…

In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been…

Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener…

I present a simple numerical model based on iteratively updating subgroups of a population, individually modeled by nonnegative real numbers, by a constant decay factor; however, at each iteration, one group is selected to instead be…

Longitudinal studies are often conducted to explore the cohort and age effects in many scientific areas. The within cluster correlation structure plays a very important role in longitudinal data analysis. This is because not only can an…