相关论文: A simple model of mortality trends aiming at unive…

Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…

In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…

In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919…

We introduce Cohort Comfort Models, a new framework for predicting how new occupants would perceive their thermal environment. Cohort Comfort Models leverage historical data collected from a sample population, who have some underlying…

Climate change poses increasing challenges for mortality modeling and underscores the need to integrate climate-related variables into mortality forecasting. This study introduces a two-step approach that incorporates climate information…

Tree-structured models are a powerful alternative to parametric regression models if non-linear effects and interactions are present in the data. Yet, classical tree-structured models might not be appropriate if data comes in clusters of…

A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…

We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance…

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively,…

The missing data problem pervasively exists in statistical applications. Even as simple as the count data in mortality projections, it may not be available for certain age-and-year groups due to the budget limitations or difficulties in…

To explore the mechanistic relationships between ageing, frailty and mortality, we developed a computational model in which possible health attributes are represented by the nodes of a complex network. Each node can be either damaged (i.e.…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Joint models initially dedicated to a single longitudinal marker and a single time-to-event need to be extended to account for the rich longitudinal data of cohort studies. Multiple causes of clinical progression are indeed usually…

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a flexible prediction model/machine learning approach that has gained widespread popularity in recent years. As BART becomes more mainstream, there is an increased need for a paper that walks…

Understanding and forecasting mortality by cause is an essential branch of actuarial science, with wide-ranging implications for decision-makers in public policy and industry. To accurately capture trends in cause-specific mortality, it is…

Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…

Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…