相关论文: On resolving the Savage-Dickey paradox

In this work, we prove existence and uniqueness of a bounded viscosity solution for the Cauchy problem of degenerate parabolic equations with variable exponent coefficients. We construct the solution directly using the stochastic…

Our study is dedicated to the probabilistic representation and numerical approximation of solutions to coupled systems of variational inequalities. The dynamics of each component of the solution is driven by a different linear parabolic…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a…

Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…

This paper deals with a new Bayesian approach to the two-sample problem. More specifically, let $x=(x_1,\ldots,x_{n_1})$ and $y=(y_1,\ldots,y_{n_2})$ be two independent samples coming from unknown distributions $F$ and $G$, respectively.…

When searching over a large parameter space for anomalies such as events, peaks, objects, or particles, there is a large probability that spurious signals with seemingly high significance will be found. This is known as the look-elsewhere…

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

Statistical query (SQ) algorithms are algorithms that have access to an {\em SQ oracle} for the input distribution $D$ instead of i.i.d.~ samples from $D$. Given a query function $\phi:X \rightarrow [-1,1]$, the oracle returns an estimate…

Humans systematically misrepresent probability in a stereotyped inverse-S pattern. It has been documented for decades, but its origin remains unexplained. We propose a Bayesian encoding-decoding account in which probabilities are…

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

In Chib (1995), a method for approximating marginal densities in a Bayesian setting is proposed, with one proeminent application being the estimation of the number of components in a normal mixture. As pointed out in Neal (1999) and…

We consider the weak convergence of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Weak convergence is usually expressed in terms of the convergence of expected values of test functions of the trajectories. Here we present…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

This paper introduces a new conceptual framework that recasts surface roughness effects as a "ray deflection function" (RDF) which can be statistically represented through a modified Zernike-Fourier hybrid approach that directly connects…

A novel approximate Bayesian filter based on backward stochastic differential equations is introduced. It uses a nonlinear Feynman--Kac representation of the filtering problem and the approximation of an unnormalized filtering density using…

In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…

In this study, Bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via Markov-switching heteroskedasticity. In such a model, restrictions that are just-identifying in…

We introduce the notion of symmetric covariation, which is a new measure of dependence between two components of a symmetric $\alpha$-stable random vector, where the stability parameter $\alpha$ measures the heavy-tailedness of its…

We revisit the work of Mitter and Newton on an information-theoretic interpretation of Bayes' formula through the Gibbs variational principle. This formulation allowed them to pose nonlinear estimation for diffusion processes as a problem…

Data cohesion, a recently introduced measure inspired by social interactions, uses distance comparisons to assess relative proximity. In this work, we provide a collection of results which can guide the development of cohesion-based methods…