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A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-07-23 Fazle Hussain , Zeina S. Khan , Frank Van Bussel

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disturbance to human life. An important reason behind the widespread social anxiety is the huge uncertainty about the pandemic. A fundamental uncertainty is how many or what percentage of people have…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-03-04 Donghui Yan , Ying Xu , Pei Wang

The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…

After birth setting up an effective immune system is a major challenge for all living organisms. In this paper we show that this process can be explored by using the age-specific infant death rate as a kind of sensor. This is made possible…

医学物理 · 物理学 2016-10-10 Peter Richmond , Bertrand M. Roehner

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2018-08-20 José L. Herrera , Lauren Ancel Meyers

Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2016-02-17 Lucas Böttcher , Olivia Woolley-Meza , Nuno A. M. Araújo , Hans J. Herrmann , Dirk Helbing

An accurate approximate formula of the die-out probability in a SIS epidemic process on a network is proposed. The formula contains only three essential parameters: the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the network, the…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2019-04-25 Qiang Liu , Piet Van Mieghem

Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-10-06 Lucas Böttcher , Mingtao Xia , Tom Chou

There is empirical evidence from a range of disciplines that as the connectivity of a network increases, we observe an increase in the average fitness of the system. But at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2009-11-11 Paul Ormerod , Rich Colbaugh

We present a very simple model of a spontaneous emission from a two-level atom, interacting with a field of a finite number of states. Such a process is often said to occur because of the large number of equally-probable states of…

量子物理 · 物理学 2012-04-03 Krzysztof Piotr Wójcik

Suicidal behavior is a leading cause of injury and death worldwide. Suicide has been associated with psychiatric illnesses such as depression and schizophrenia, as well as economic uncertainty, and social/cultural factors. This study…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2012-12-04 Taiki Takahashi

Does having firearms in the home increase suicide risk? To test this hypothesis, a matched case-control study can be performed, in which suicide case subjects are compared to living controls who are similar in observed covariates in terms…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-28 Ting Ye , Kan Chen , Dylan S. Small

Many systems in nature, from ferromagnets to flocks of birds, exhibit ordering phenomena on the large scale. In physical systems order is statistically robust for large enough dimensions, with relative fluctuations due to noise vanishing…

统计力学 · 物理学 2017-04-05 Andrea Cavagna , Irene Giardina , Asja Jelic , Edmondo Silvestri , Massimiliano Viale

High impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. Testing, contact tracing and quarantining are critical in slowing down epidemic dynamics, but may prove insufficient for highly contagious…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-06-09 Davide Scarselli , Nazmi Burak Budanur , Marc Timme , Björn Hof

Among young adults, suicide is India's leading cause of death, accounting for an alarming national suicide rate of around 16%. In recent years, machine learning algorithms have emerged to predict suicidal behavior using various behavioral…

Seasonality is one of the oldest and most elucidation-resistant issues in suicide epidemiological research. Despite winter depression (also known as Seasonal Affective Disorder, SAD) is known and treated since many years, worldwide…

科普物理 · 物理学 2016-04-01 Luca Perri , Om S. Salafia

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…

概率论 · 数学 2015-03-13 Frank Ball , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

We study the effects of non-systematic and systematic mortality risks on the required initial capital in a pension plan, in the presence of financial risks. We discover that for a pension plan with few members the impact of pooling on the…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2013-08-01 Helena Aro

Mortality is an instrument of natural selection. Evolutionary motivated theories imply its irreversibility and life history dependence. This is inconsistent with mortality data for protected populations. Accurate analysis yields mortality…

其他定量生物学 · 定量生物学 2007-05-23 Mark Ya. Azbel'

Information and individual activities often spread globally through the network of social ties. While social contagion phenomena have been extensively studied within the framework of threshold models, it is common to make an assumption that…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2023-06-07 Teruyoshi Kobayashi