相关论文: On the Viterbi process with continuous state space

The classic algorithm of Viterbi computes the most likely path in a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that results in a given sequence of observations. It runs in time $O(Tn^2)$ given a sequence of $T$ observations from a HMM with $n$ states.…

We consider the smoothing probabilities of hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that under fairly general conditions for HMM, the exponential forgetting still holds, and the smoothing probabilities can be well approximated with the ones of…

Continuous-discrete models with dynamics described by stochastic differential equations are used in a wide variety of applications. For these systems, the maximum a posteriori (MAP) state path can be defined as the curves around which lie…

Forecasting tasks using large datasets gathering thousands of heterogeneous time series is a crucial statistical problem in numerous sectors. The main challenge is to model a rich variety of time series, leverage any available external…

This paper is dedicated to the investigation of a new numerical method to approximate the optimal stopping problem for a discrete-time continuous state space Markov chain under partial observations. It is based on a two-step discretization…

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…

The statistics of the diffusive motion of particles often serve as an experimental proxy for their interaction with the environment. However, inferring the physical properties from the observed trajectories is challenging. Inspired by a…

Hidden Markov models are traditionally decoded by the Viterbi algorithm which finds the highest probability state path in the model. In recent years, several limitations of the Viterbi decoding have been demonstrated, and new algorithms…

This paper compiles several aspects of the dynamics of stochastic approximation algorithms with Markov iterate-dependent noise when the iterates are not known to be stable beforehand. We achieve the same by extending the lock-in probability…

We consider a bivariate, possibly non-homogeneous, finite-state Markov chain $(X,U)=\{(X_t,U_t)\}_{t=1}^n$. We are interested in the marginal process $X$, which typically is not a Markov chain. The goal is to find a realization (path)…

This paper presents algorithms for parallelization of inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we propose parallel backward-forward type of filtering and smoothing algorithm as well as parallel Viterbi-type…

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

We consider a hidden Markov model with multiplicative noise emerging from studies of software reliability. We show the stability of the optimal filter with respect to general initial conditions in the total variation- and $L^p$-norm and…

We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…

For the continuous-time and the discrete-time three-state hidden Markov model, the flux of the likelihood function up to 3-dimension of the observed process is shown explicitly. As an application, the sufficient and necessary condition of…

In this paper, we consider the finite-state approximation of a discrete-time constrained Markov decision process (MDP) under the discounted and average cost criteria. Using the linear programming formulation of the constrained discounted…

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific…

We study infinite-horizon robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) on continuous state spaces with structured rectangular ambiguity set. The proposed ambiguity set falls within the convex hull of unknown generating kernels. We utilize the…

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…