相关论文: Indirect Influences
This paper deals with the concept of equivalence between direct and indirect effects of a treatment on a response using two sets of intermediate variables and covariates. First, we provide criteria for testing whether two sets of variables…
After a brief review of option pricing theory, we introduce various methods proposed for extracting the statistical information implicit in options prices. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each method, the interpretation of their…
Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. Several classical probabilistic inference tasks (such as MAP and computing marginals) have not yet received a lot of attention for…
Although there is growing interest in measuring integrated information in computational and cognitive systems, current methods for doing so in practice are computationally unfeasible. Existing and novel integration measures are investigated…
Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of…
Computational methods for assessing the likely impacts of mutations, known as variant effect predictors (VEPs), are widely used in the assessment and interpretation of human genetic variation, as well as in other applications like protein…
A committee's decisions on more than two alternatives much depend on the adopted voting method, and so does the distribution of power among the committee members. We investigate how different aggregation methods such as plurality runoff,…
People sometimes change their opinions when they discuss things with other people. Researchers can use mathematics to study opinion changes in simplifications of real-life situations. These simplified settings, which are examples of…
We present two methods for bounding the probabilities of benefit and harm under unmeasured confounding. The first method computes the (upper or lower) bound of either probability as a function of the observed data distribution and two…
Propensity score (PS) weighting methods are often used in non-randomized studies to adjust for confounding and assess treatment effects. The most popular among them, the inverse probability weighting (IPW), assigns weights that are…
With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical…
Consider a regression or some regression-type model for a certain response variable where the linear predictor includes an ordered factor among the explanatory variables. The inclusion of a factor of this type can take place is a few…
We study the problem of data integration from sources that contain probabilistic uncertain information. Data is modeled by possible-worlds with probability distribution, compactly represented in the probabilistic relation model. Integration…
This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them…
Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity…
The use of causal mediation analysis to evaluate the pathways by which an exposure affects an outcome is widespread in the social and biomedical sciences. Recent advances in this area have established formal conditions for identification…
To evaluate a single cause of a binary effect, Dawid et al. (2014) defined the probability of causation, while Pearl (2015) defined the probabilities of necessity and sufficiency. For assessing the multiple correlated causes of a binary…
To mitigate the impacts associated with adverse weather conditions, meteorological services issue weather warnings to the general public. These warnings rely heavily on forecasts issued by underlying prediction systems. When deciding which…
This paper presents complexity analysis and variational methods for inference in probabilistic description logics featuring Boolean operators, quantification, qualified number restrictions, nominals, inverse roles and role hierarchies.…
Estimating population-level effects of a vaccine is challenging because there may be interference, i.e., the outcome of one individual may depend on the vaccination status of another individual. Partial interference occurs when individuals…