相关论文: Limitations on intermittent forecasting

Consider an ergodic Markov chain on a countable state space for which the return times have exponential tails. We show that the stationary version of any such chain is a finitary factor of an i.i.d. process. A key step is to show that any…

Let $(\xi_n)_{n=0}^\infty$ be a nonhomogeneous Markov chain taking values from finite state-space of $\mathbf{X}=\{1,2,\ldots,b\}$. In this paper, we will study the generalized entropy ergodic theorem with almost-everywhere and…

We consider Backward Stochastic Differential Equations in a setting where noise is generated by a countable state, continuous time Markov chain, and the terminal value is prescribed at a stopping time. We show that, given sufficient…

Computational procedures for the stationary probability distribution, the group inverse of the Markovian kernel and the mean first passage times of an irreducible Markov chain, are developed using perturbations. The derivation of these…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

We consider ergodic backward stochastic differential equations, in a setting where noise is generated by a countable state uniformly ergodic Markov chain. We show that for Lipschitz drivers such that a comparison theorem holds, these…

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…

In this paper we discuss how the notion of subgeometric ergodicity in Markov chain theory can be exploited to study stationarity and ergodicity of nonlinear time series models. Subgeometric ergodicity means that the transition probability…

We consider ergodic backward stochastic differential equations in a discrete time setting, where noise is generated by a finite state Markov chain. We show existence and uniqueness of solutions, along with a comparison theorem. To obtain…

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a $p\in(1,2)$ so that the functions have finite $L_p$-norm. For…

Exploration of the intractable posterior distributions associated with Bayesian versions of the general linear mixed model is often performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo. In particular, if a conditionally conjugate prior is used, then…

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…

In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Approximating the stationary probability of a state in a Markov chain through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is, in general, inefficient. Standard random walk approaches require $\tilde{O}(\tau/\pi(v))$ operations to approximate the…

Using elementary methods, we prove that for a countable Markov chain $P$ of ergodic degree $d > 0$ the rate of convergence towards the stationary distribution is subgeometric of order $n^{-d}$, provided the initial distribution satisfies…

We give a bound on the mixing time of a uniformly ergodic, reversible Markov chain in terms of the spectral radius of the transition operator. This bound has been established previously in finite state spaces, and is widely believed to hold…

We investigate multivariate regular variation in the context of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general vector spaces and in random coefficient linear models. In the first part, we show that the regular variation of the stationary…