相关论文: Modelling Bonds & Credit Default Swaps using a Str…
We present a general framework for the estimation of corporate default based on a firm's capital structure, when its assets are assumed to follow a pure jump L\'evy processes; this setup provides a natural extension to usual default metrics…
Financial contagion has been widely recognized as a fundamental risk to the financial system. Particularly potent is price-mediated contagion, wherein forced liquidations by firms depress asset prices and propagate financial stress,…
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are…
We consider structural credit modeling in the important special case where the log-leverage ratio of the firm is a time-changed Brownian motion (TCBM) with the time-change taken to be an independent increasing process. Following the…
Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten…
We introduce an arbitrage-free framework for robust valuation adjustments. An investor trades a credit default swap portfolio with a risky counterparty, and hedges credit risk by taking a position in defaultable bonds. The investor does not…
Risk-averse investors often wish to exclude stocks from their portfolios that bear high credit risk, which is a measure of a firm's likelihood of bankruptcy. This risk is commonly estimated by constructing signals from quarterly accounting…
We propose a semi-structured discrete-time multi-state model to analyse mortgage delinquency transitions. This model combines an easy-to-understand structured additive predictor, which includes linear effects and smooth functions of time…
We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of $d$ obligors, a set of $d$ idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all…
According to theoretical models of valuing risky corporate securities, risk of default is primary component in overall yield spread. However, sizable empirical literature considers it otherwise by giving more importance to non-default risk…
In the paper we study dynamics of the arbitrage prices of credit default swaps within a hazard process model of credit risk. We derive these dynamics without postulating that the immersion property is satisfied between some relevant…
Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
Recently, incomplete-market techniques have been used to develop a model applicable to credit default swaps (CDSs) with results obtained that are quite different from those obtained using the market-standard model. This article makes use of…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
We study the impact of contagion in a network of firms facing credit risk. We describe an intensity based model where the homogeneity assumption is broken by introducing a random environment that makes it possible to take into account the…
The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but…
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between…
This paper studies the valuation of a class of default swaps with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable contracts that give the protection…
In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash…