相关论文: Hasard et d\'eterminisme chez Laplace

This note is an extended read of my read of Laplace's book Theorie Analytique des Probabilites, when considered from a Bayesian viewpoint but without historical nor comparative pretentions. A deeper analysis is provided in Dale (1999).

The text of Laplace, \textit{Sur l'application du calcul des probabilit\'es \`a la philosophie naturelle,} (Th\'eorie Analytique des Probabilit\'es. Troisi\`eme \'Edition. Premier Suppl\'ement), 1820, is quoted in the context of the…

This book covers the history of probability up to Kolmogorov with essential additional coverage of statistics up to Fisher. Based on my work of ca. 50 years, it is the only suchlike book. Gorrochurn (2016) is similar but his study of events…

I try to clarify several confusions in the popular literature concerning chaos, determinism, the arrow of time, entropy and the role of probability in physics. Classical ideas going back to Laplace and Boltzmann are explained and defended…

In spite of the wide range of his book, Cournot did not know some essential discoveries in natural sciences (William Herschel, Daniel Bernoulli, Humboldt) and his deliberations about measurement were almost useless. But he introduced the…

Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a…

This paper, which is dedicated to Alan Turing on the 50th anniversary of his death, gives an overview and discusses the philosophical implications of incompleteness, uncomputability and randomness.

This expository paper advocates an approach to physics in which ``typicality" is identified with a suitable form of algorithmic randomness. To this end various theorems from mathematics and physics are reviewed. Their original versions…

We introduce relationalism and discuss how it is useful for interpreting probability theory and quantum mechanics. This paper is written in relatively lay terms and presumes no prior knowledge of quantum theory.

We explore the interplay between random and deterministic phenomena using a representation of uncertainty based on the measure-theoretic concept of outer measure. The meaning of the analogues of different probabilistic concepts is…

I am presenting a first-ever scientific collection of short sayings on probability and statistics expressed by most various men of science, many classics included, from antiquity to Kepler to our time. Quite understandably, the reader will…

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

These are lecture notes written at the University of Zurich during spring 2014 and spring 2015. The first part of the notes gives an introduction to probability theory. It explains the notion of random events and random variables,…

The recognition of the agency of the knower has enormously enriched our understanding of knowledge production. There is a growing realization that what we know about how we know affects our interpretation of reality. This realization…

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

This article is a brief personal account of the past, present, and future of algorithmic randomness, emphasizing its role in inductive inference and artificial intelligence. It is written for a general audience interested in science and…

This text is a survey of the general theory of stochastic processes, with a view towards random times and enlargements of filtrations. The first five chapters present standard materials, which were developed by the French probability school…

The idea of writing a table of probabilistic data for a quantum or classical system, and of decomposing this table in a compact way, leads to a shortcut for Hardy's formalism, and gives new perspectives on foundational issues.

This paper presents an offering of some of the myriad connections between Combinatorics and Probability, directed in particular toward combinatorialists. The choice of material was dictated by the author's own interests, tastes and…

In spite of its title, the book mostly treats probability theory: the law of large numbers (regarded as a principle); formal definition of a random variable and law of distribution; the misnamed Cauchy distribution; functions now named…