相关论文: Hasard et d\'eterminisme chez Laplace

According to quantum theory, randomness is a fundamental property of the universe yet classical physics is mostly deterministic. In this article I show that it is possible for deterministic systems to arise from random ones and discuss the…

The paper contains some musings about the abstractions introduced by Lucien Le Cam into the asymptotic theory of statistical inference and decision theory. A short, self-contained proof of a key result (existence of randomizations via…

The statistical duality of distributions is a powerful tool for statistical inferences. In the paper the statistical duality of Laplace distribution is discussed. As shown the confidence density of the parameter of this distribution is…

There is a persistent confusion about determinism and predictability. In spite of the opinions of some eminent philosophers (e.g., Popper), it is possible to understand that the two concepts are completely unrelated. In few words we can say…

An approach to induction is presented, based on the idea of analysing the context of a given problem into `circumstances'. This approach, fully Bayesian in form and meaning, provides a complement or in some cases an alternative to that…

Comment on ``Lancaster Probabilities and Gibbs Sampling'' [arXiv:0808.3852]

This study has the purpose of addressing four questions that lie at the base of the probability theory and statistics, and includes two main steps. As first, we conduct the textual analysis of the most significant works written by eminent…

Bertrand's paradox is a famous problem of probability theory, pointing to a possible inconsistency in Laplace's principle of insufficient reason. In this article we show that Bertrand's paradox contains two different problems: an "easy"…

Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This…

Here we present in a single essay a combination and completion of the several aspects of the problem of randomness of individual objects which of necessity occur scattered in our texbook "An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity and Its…

Uncertainty enters into human reasoning and inference in at least two ways. It is reasonable to suppose that there will be roles for these distinct uses of uncertainty also in automated reasoning.

This is an article for a special edition of "European Review" with a focus on the topic "Causality".

This is an introduction to some of the most probabilistic aspects of free probability theory.

We give here a constructive account of the frequentist approach to probability, by means of natural density. Using this notion of natural density, we introduce some probabilistic versions of the Limited Principle of Omniscience. Finally we…

Despite provable unknowables in recursion theory, indeterminism and randomness in physics is confined to conventions, subjective beliefs and preliminary evidence. The history of the issue is very briefly reviewed, and answers to five…

In this article the idea of random variables over the set theoretic universe is investigated. We explore what it can mean for a random set to have a specific probability of belonging to an antecedently given class of sets.

This PhD thesis deals with a number of different problems in mathematical physics with the common thread that they have probabilistic aspects. The problems all stem from mathematical studies of lattice systems in statistical and quantum…

I review the classical theory of likelihood based inference and consider how it is being extended and developed for use in complex models and sampling schemes.

Determinism is (roughly) the thesis that the past determines the future. But efforts to define it precisely have exposed deep methodological disagreements. Standard possible-worlds formulations of determinism presuppose an "agreement"…

We correct a common (but mistaken) attribution of the evaluation of the probability integral, usually attributed to Poisson, Gauss, or Laplace.