相关论文: On the estimation of a parameter with incomplete k…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Towards understanding the fundamental limits of estimation from data of varied quality, we study the problem of estimating a mean parameter from heteroskedastic Gaussian observations where the variances are unknown and may vary arbitrarily…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Suppose data are fitted to some parametric model but that the true model happens to be one with an additional parameter. When a parameter is to be estimated one can use likelihood estimation in the wider model or in the narrow model.…

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

Two Bayesian models with different sampling densities are said to be marginally equivalent if the joint distribution of observables and the parameter of interest is the same for both models. We discuss marginal equivalence in the general…

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

We propose an update estimation method for a diffusion parameter from high-frequency dependent data under a nuisance drift element. We ensure the asymptotic equivalence of the estimator to the corresponding quasi-MLE, which has the…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

We study prior distributions for Poisson parameter estimation under $L^1$ loss. Specifically, we construct a new family of prior distributions whose optimal Bayesian estimators (the conditional medians) can be any prescribed increasing…

The human brain copes with sensory uncertainty in accordance with Bayes' rule. However, it is unknown how the brain makes predictions in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Here, we tested whether and how humans take parameter…

The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random,…

We propose a new approach for estimating the parameters of a probability distribution. It consists on combining two new methods of estimation. The first is based on the definition of a new distance measuring the difference between…

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

This document presents the statistical methods used to process low-level measurements in the presence of noise. These methods can be classical or Bayesian. The question is placed in the general framework of the problem of nuisance…

Usual estimation methods for the parameters of extreme values distribution employ only a few values, wasting a lot of information. More precisely, in the case of the Gumbel distribution, only the block maxima values are used. In this work,…

We resurrect the infamous harmonic mean estimator for computing the marginal likelihood (Bayesian evidence) and solve its problematic large variance. The marginal likelihood is a key component of Bayesian model selection to evaluate model…

Message importance measure (MIM) is applicable to characterize the importance of information in the scenario of big data, similar to entropy in information theory. In fact, MIM with a variable parameter can make an effect on the…