相关论文: Monte Carlo likelihood inference for missing data …

Mixture distributions with dynamic weights are an efficient way of modeling loss data characterized by heavy tails. However, maximum likelihood estimation of this family of models is difficult, mostly because of the need to evaluate…

The asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under regularity conditions is a cornerstone of statistical theory. In this paper, we give explicit upper bounds on the distributional distance between the distribution of…

Modeling sparse data such as microbiome and transcriptomics (RNA-seq) data is very challenging due to the exceeded number of zeros and skewness of the distribution. Many probabilistic models have been used for modeling sparse data,…

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are…

This work addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of the general half-normal distribution. Namely, the problem of determining the minimum risk equi\-va\-riant (MRE) estimators of the parameters is explored. Simulation studies are…

The method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a widely used statistical approach for estimating the values of one or more unknown parameters of a probabilistic model based on observed data. In this tutorial, I briefly review the…

We explore past and recent developments in rare-event probability estimation with a particular focus on a novel Monte Carlo technique Empirical Likelihood Maximization (ELM). This is a versatile method that involves sampling from a sequence…

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning have led to neural networks being used to generate lightning-speed answers to complex science questions, paintings in the style of Monet, or stories like those of Twain. Leveraging…

The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to…

In this paper, we consider a Monte Carlo simulation method (MinMC) that approximates prices and risk measures for a range $\Gamma$ of model parameters at once. The simulation method that we study has recently gained popularity [HS20, FPP22,…

This paper proposes a novel exact maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method for general Gaussian processes, where all parameters are estimated jointly. The exact ML estimator (MLE) is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We…

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

Estimating the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between language models has many applications, e.g., reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), interpretability, and knowledge distillation. However, computing the exact KL…

Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…

The expected information gain is an important quality criterion of Bayesian experimental designs, which measures how much the information entropy about uncertain quantity of interest $\theta$ is reduced on average by collecting relevant…

We compare the integration error of Monte Carlo (MC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for approximating the normalizing constant of posterior distributions and certain marginal likelihoods. In doing so, we characterize the dependency of…

Quantiles and expected shortfalls are usually used to measure risks of stochastic systems, which are often estimated by Monte Carlo methods. This paper focuses on the use of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method, whose convergence rate is…

In this paper, we consider distributed maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with dependent quantized data under the assumption that the structure of the joint probability density function (pdf) is known, but it contains unknown deterministic…

Recently maximum pseudo-likelihood (MPL) inference method has been successfully applied to statistical physics models with intractable likelihoods. We use information theory to derive a relation between the pseudo-likelihood and likelihood…