相关论文: Monte Carlo likelihood inference for missing data …

Efficient estimation methods for simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with missing data in the response variable have been well-explored in the literature. A common practice is to introduce measurement error into SAR models to separate…

We consider the situation where the observed sample contains some observations whose class of origin is known (that is, they are classified with respect to the g underlying classes of interest), and where the remaining observations in the…

With the growth of interest in network data across fields, the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) has emerged as the leading approach to the statistical analysis of network data. ERGM parameter estimation requires the approximation of an…

Monte Carlo dropout may effectively capture model uncertainty in deep learning, where a measure of uncertainty is obtained by using multiple instances of dropout at test time. However, Monte Carlo dropout is applied across the whole network…

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum…

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

For training an encoder network to perform amortized variational inference, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the exact posterior to its approximation, known as the inclusive or forward KL, is an increasingly popular choice of…

We discuss estimation of the differentiated products demand system of Berry et al (1995) (BLP) by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We derive the maximum likelihood estimator in the case where prices are endogenously generated by firms…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods rely on a hierarchy of possibly less accurate but statistically correlated simplified or reduced models, in order to accelerate the estimation of statistics of high-fidelity models without compromising the…

Composite likelihood estimation has an important role in the analysis of multivariate data for which the full likelihood function is intractable. An important issue in composite likelihood inference is the choice of the weights associated…

Monte Carlo integration is a commonly used technique to compute intractable integrals and is typically thought to perform poorly for very high-dimensional integrals. To show that this is not always the case, we examine Monte Carlo…

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

In this article we focus on Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE) for the static parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs). We will consider the case where one cannot or does not want to compute the conditional likelihood density of the…

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Logistic regression is a classical model for describing the probabilistic dependence of binary responses to multivariate covariates. We consider the predictive performance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for logistic regression,…

As increasingly complex hypothesis-testing scenarios are considered in many scientific fields, analytic derivation of null distributions is often out of reach. To the rescue comes Monte Carlo testing, which may appear deceptively simple: as…

While the Quasi-Monte Carlo method of numerical integration achieves smaller integration error than standard Monte Carlo, its use in particle physics phenomenology has been hindered by the abscence of a reliable way to estimate that error.…

Meta analysis is commonly-used to synthesize multiple results from individual studies. However, its validation is usually threatened by publication bias and between-study heterogeneity, which can be captured by the Copas selection model.…

This project investigates the applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to Euclidean lattice systems in order to improve the asymptotic error scaling of observables for such theories. The error of an observable calculated by averaging over…

This paper revisits the work of Rauch et al. (1965) and develops a novel method for recursive maximum likelihood particle filtering for general state-space models. The new method is based on statistical analysis of incomplete observations…