相关论文: Monte Carlo likelihood inference for missing data …
We employ a parameter-free distribution estimation framework where estimators are random distributions and utilize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as a loss function. Wu and Vos [J. Statist. Plann. Inference 142 (2012) 1525-1536] show…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…
The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…
Accelerated algorithms for maximum likelihood image reconstruction are essential for emerging applications such as 3D tomography, dynamic tomographic imaging, and other high dimensional inverse problems. In this paper, we introduce and…
Accurately estimating high quantiles beyond the largest observed value is crucial for risk assessment and devising effective adaptation strategies to prevent a greater disaster. The generalized extreme value distribution is widely used for…
This paper presents some results on the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation from incomplete data. Finite sample properties of conditional observed information matrices are established. They possess positive definiteness and the same Loewner…
This study tackles the efficient estimation of Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence in Dirichlet Mixture Models (DMM), crucial for clustering compositional data. Despite the significance of DMMs, obtaining an analytically tractable solution for…
In a multi-fidelity setting, data are available from two sources, high- and low-fidelity. Low-fidelity data has larger size and can be leveraged to make more efficient inference about quantities of interest, e.g. the mean, for high-fidelity…
We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…
Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…
Nested Monte Carlo is widely used for risk estimation, but its efficiency is limited by the discontinuity of the indicator function and high computational cost. This paper proposes a nested Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with…
Importance sampling Monte-Carlo methods are widely used for the approximation of expectations with respect to partially known probability measures. In this paper we study a deterministic version of such an estimator based on quasi-Monte…
We develop a pure Monte Carlo method to compute $E(g(X_T))$ where $g$ is a bounded and Lipschitz function and $X_t$ an Ito process. This approach extends a previously proposed method to the general multidimensional case with a SDE with…
The saddlepoint approximation to the likelihood, and its corresponding maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), offer an alternative estimation method when the true likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive. However, maximizing this…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…
The maximum ${\log}_q$ likelihood estimation method is a generalization of the known maximum $\log$ likelihood method to overcome the problem for modeling non-identical observations (inliers and outliers). The parameter $q$ is a tuning…
We construct the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the unknown drift parameter $\theta\in \mathbb{R}$ in the linear model $X_t=\theta t+\sigma B^{H_1}(t)+B^{H_2}(t),\;t\in[0,T],$ where $B^{H_1}$ and $B^{H_2}$ are two independent…
Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means, $\mu$, of random variables $Y$, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample, $Y_1, ..., Y_n$, tends to $\mu$ as $n$ tends to…
We consider the outstanding problem of sampling from an unnormalized density that may be non-log-concave and multimodal. To enhance the performance of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, techniques of annealing type have been…
Continuous level Monte Carlo is an unbiased, continuous version of the celebrated multilevel Monte Carlo method. The approximation level is assumed to be continuous resulting in a stochastic process describing the quantity of interest.…