相关论文: Point estimation with exponentially tilted empiric…

A wide range of natural and social phenomena result in observables whose distributions can be well approximated by a power-law decay. The well-known Hill estimator of the tail exponent provides results which are in many respects superior to…

This work studies the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a non-linear model with Gaussian errors and multidimensional parameter. The observations are collected in a two-stage experimental design and are dependent since…

The method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is guided by intuition gained from the…

We define a moment-based estimator that maximizes the empirical saddlepoint (ESP) approximation of the distribution of solutions to empirical moment conditions. We call it the ESP estimator. We prove its existence, consistency and…

Empirical divergence maximization (EDM) refers to a recently proposed strategy for estimating f-divergences and likelihood ratio functions. This paper extends the idea to empirical vector quantization where one seeks to empirically derive…

We extend the empirical likelihood of Owen [Ann. Statist. 18 (1990) 90-120] by partitioning its domain into the collection of its contours and mapping the contours through a continuous sequence of similarity transformations onto the full…

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware…

Point estimation is a fundamental statistical task. Given the wide selection of available point estimators, it is unclear, however, what, if any, would be universally-agreed theoretical reasons to generally prefer one such estimator over…

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

This paper derives the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a distribution function from observations which are subject to both bias and censoring. The NPMLE is obtained by a simple EM algorithm which is an extension of the…

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias…

In nonlinear deterministic parameter estimation, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is unable to attain the Cramer-Rao lower bound at low and medium signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) due the threshold and ambiguity phenomena. In order to…

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) is a foundational framework for supervised learning but primarily optimizes average-case performance, often neglecting fairness and robustness considerations. Tilted Empirical Risk Minimization (TERM)…

We study statistical estimators computed using iterative optimization methods that are not run until completion. Classical results on maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) assert that a one-step estimator (OSE), in which a single…

Classical optimization theory requires a small step-size for gradient-based methods to converge. Nevertheless, recent findings challenge the traditional idea by empirically demonstrating Gradient Descent (GD) converges even when the…

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new…

It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper…

This paper studies the optimal state estimation problem for interconnected systems. Each subsystem can obtain its own measurement in real time, while, the measurements transmitted between the subsystems suffer from random delay. The optimal…

Linear regression models are useful statistical tools to analyze data sets in several different fields. There are several methods to estimate the parameters of a linear regression model. These methods usually perform under normally…