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In minimum trace (MinT) forecast reconciliation, the covariance matrix of the base forecasts errors plays a crucial role. Typically, this matrix is estimated and then treated as known. This can lead to underestimation of the variance of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-11 Chiara Carrara , Dario Azzimonti , Giorgio Corani , Lorenzo Zambon

In public opinion studies, the relationships between opinions on different topics are likely to shift based on the characteristics of the respondents. Thus, understanding the complexities of public opinion requires methods that can account…

Hypothesis testing of structure in covariance matrices is of significant importance, but faces great challenges in high-dimensional settings. Although consistent frequentist one-sample covariance tests have been proposed, there is a lack of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-22 Kyoungjae Lee , Lizhen Lin , David Dunson

Recent advances in graph convolutional networks have significantly improved the performance of chemical predictions, raising a new research question: "how do we explain the predictions of graph convolutional networks?" A possible approach…

In this paper, we address the problem of estimating a covariance matrix of a multivariate Gaussian distribution, relative to a Stein loss function, from a decision theoretic point of view. We investigate the case where the covariance matrix…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-03-23 Anis M. Haddouche , Wei Lu

Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-11 Jurijs Nazarovs , Ronak R. Mehta , Vishnu Suresh Lokhande , Vikas Singh

Conventional approximations to Bayesian inference rely on either approximations by statistics such as mean and covariance or by point particles. Recent advances such as the ensemble Gaussian mixture filter have generalized these notions to…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-04-10 Andrey A Popov

Recent work on overfitting Bayesian mixtures of distributions offers a powerful framework for clustering multivariate data using a latent Gaussian model which resembles the factor analysis model. The flexibility provided by overfitting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-29 Panagiotis Papastamoulis

Global variational approximation methods in graphical models allow efficient approximate inference of complex posterior distributions by using a simpler model. The choice of the approximating model determines a tradeoff between the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-14 Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman

In genome-wide prediction, independence of marker allele substitution effects is typically assumed; however, since early stages of this technology it has been known that nature points to correlated effects. In statistics, graphical models…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2017-09-21 Carlos Alberto Martínez , Kshitij Khare , Syed Rahman , Mauricio A. Elzo

We study the problem of estimability of means in undirected graphical Gaussian models with symmetry restrictions represented by a colored graph. Following on from previous studies, we partition the variables into sets of vertices whose…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-07-24 Helene Gehrmann , Steffen L. Lauritzen

Data sets are growing in complexity thanks to the increasing facilities we have nowadays to both generate and store data. This poses many challenges to machine learning that are leading to the proposal of new methods and paradigms, in order…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-12-04 Irene Córdoba , Concha Bielza , Pedro Larrañaga

Determining if two histograms are consistent, whether they have been drawn from the same underlying distribution or not, is a common problem in physics. Existing approaches are not only limited in power but also inapplicable to histograms…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2010-09-29 M. J. Betancourt

Testing a covariance matrix following a Gaussian graphical model (GGM) is considered in this paper based on observations made at a set of distributed sensors grouped into clusters. Ordered transmissions are proposed to achieve the same…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2019-10-23 Yicheng Chen , Rick S. Blum , Brian M. Sadler , Jiangfan Zhang

Gaussian factor models have proven widely useful for parsimoniously characterizing dependence in multivariate data. There is a rich literature on their extension to mixed categorical and continuous variables, using latent Gaussian variables…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-01-14 Jared S. Murray , David B. Dunson , Lawrence Carin , Joseph E. Lucas

A covariance graph is an undirected graph associated with a multivariate probability distribution of a given random vector where each vertex represents each of the different components of the random vector and where the absence of an edge…

概率论 · 数学 2009-12-15 Dhafer Malouche , Bala Rajaratnam

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-17 Yujing Yao , R. Todd Ogden , Chubing Zeng , Qixuan Chen

We consider a graphical model where a multivariate normal vector is associated with each node of the underlying graph and estimate the graphical structure. We minimize a loss function obtained by regressing the vector at each node on those…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-09-19 Xingqi Du , Subhashis Ghosal

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-02-21 Francesco Bartolucci , Luisa Scaccia , Alessio Farcomeni

When constructing a Bayesian Machine Learning model, we might be faced with multiple different prior distributions and thus are required to properly consider them in a sensible manner in our model. While this situation is reasonably well…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-20 Sarem Seitz