相关论文: On a generalised model for time-dependent variance…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
Motivated by empirical evidence from the joint behavior of realized volatility time series, we propose to model the joint dynamics of log-volatilities using a multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This model is a multivariate…
The maximum entropy ansatz, as it is often invoked in the context of time-series analysis, suggests the selection of a power spectrum which is consistent with autocorrelation data and corresponds to a random process least predictable from…
In this paper, we study a general class of causal processes with exogenous covariates, including many classical processes such as the ARMA-GARCH, APARCH, ARMAX, GARCH-X and APARCH-X processes. Under some Lipschitz-type conditions, the…
Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…
We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price…
Using an asymmetric associative network with synchronous updating, it is possible to recall a sequence of patterns. To obtain a stable sequence generation with a large storage capacity, we introduce a threshold that eliminates the…
This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…
Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other applications in finance. It is well-known that financial time series display conditional heteroscedasticity. Among the large number of…
We consider the problem of fast time-series data clustering. Building on previous work modeling the correlation-based Hamiltonian of spin variables we present an updated fast non-expensive Agglomerative Likelihood Clustering algorithm…
A version of ``preferential attachment'' random graphs, corresponding to linear ``weights'' with random ``edge additions,'' which generalizes some previously considered models, is studied. This graph model is embedded in a continuous-time…
The HGARCH model allows long-memory impact in volatilities. A new HGARCH model with time-varying amplitude is considered in this paper. We show the stability of the model as well. A score test is introduced to check the time-varying…
We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…
We introduce an affine extension of the Heston model where the instantaneous variance process contains a jump part driven by $\alpha$-stable processes with $\alpha\in(1,2]$. In this framework, we examine the implied volatility and its…
In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…
We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…
In this paper, we provide a simple, ``generic'' interpretation of multifractal scaling laws and multiplicative cascade process paradigms in terms of volatility correlations. We show that in this context 1/f power spectra, as observed…
This paper is devoted to the off-line multiple change-point detection in a semiparametric framework. The time series is supposed to belong to a large class of models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),... models where…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…