相关论文: A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain ep…

To be fully useful for public health practice, models for epidemic response must be able to do more than predict -- it is also important to incorporate the mechanisms underlying transmission dynamics to enable policymakers and practitioners…

There are insights of chaotic properties in economic systems and data. To prove the existence of chaotic dynamics, the establishment of a deterministic model is mandatory. A global modelling tool (GPoM) is used to search for mathematical…

Dengue and Zika incidence data and the latest research have raised questions about how dengue vaccine strategies might be impacted by the emergence of Zika virus. Existing antibodies to one virus might temporarily protect or promote…

Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for…

Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…

This paper systematically discusses how the inherent properties of chaotic attractors influence the results of discovering causality from time series using convergent cross mapping, particularly how convergent cross mapping misleads…

An non-autonomous system is proposed to model the seasonal pattern of dengue fever. We found that an approximate threshold condition for infection persistence describes all possible behavior of the system. As far as we know, the kind of…

We investigate a discrete-time two-strain symbiotic epidemic model on complex networks with both random and long-range interactions. Our analysis examines how the co-infection recovery rate ($\mu$), the long-range decay exponent ($\alpha$),…

Epidemic spreading often occurs in spatially heterogeneous environments, yet how quenched heterogeneity reshapes its onset and critical dynamics remains poorly understood. The diffusive epidemic process, a minimal reaction-diffusion model…

Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of…

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease mostly endemic to tropical and subtropical countries that affect millions every year and is considered a significant burden for public health. Its geographic distribution makes it highly sensitive to…

We study a family of binary state, socially-inspired contagion models which incorporate imitation limited by an aversion to complete conformity. We uncover rich behavior in our models whether operating with either probabilistic or…

The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The…

A non-autonomous system is proposed to model the seasonal pattern of dengue fever. We found that an approximate threshold condition for infection persistence describes all possible behavior of the system. As far as we know, the kind of…

We adapt the article of Forien, Pang, Pardoux and Zotsa: Arxiv preprint Arxiv2210.04667(2022), on epidemic models with varying infectivity and waning immunity, to incorporate the memory of the last infection. To this end, we introduce a…

Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the mechanism for the interplay of deterministic and stochastic models for contagious diseases. Deterministic models for contagious diseases are prone to predict global stability. Small natural birth…

In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world. In several regions dengue re-emerged, particularly in Latin America, where dengue cases not only increased but also occurred more frequently. It is therefore…

An attractor of a piecewise-smooth continuous system of differential equations can bifurcate from a stable equilibrium to a more complicated invariant set when it collides with a switching manifold under parameter variation. Here numerical…