相关论文: On the Computational Complexity of MCMC-based Esti…

I show how Markov chain sampling with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm can be modified so as to take bigger steps when the distribution being sampled from has the characteristic that its density can be quickly recomputed for a new point if…

An easy-to-implement form of the Metropolis Algorithm is described which, unlike most standard techniques, is well suited to sampling from multi-modal distributions on spaces with moderate numbers of dimensions (order ten) in environments…

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

In calculating expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design, the computation of the inner loop in the classical double-loop Monte Carlo requires a large number of samples and suffers from underflow if the number of…

Monte-Carlo techniques are standard numerical tools for exploring non-Gaussian and multivariate likelihoods. Many variants of the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm have been proposed to increase the sampling efficiency. Motivated by…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Laplace approximation (LA) and variational inference (VI) methods are popular approaches to Bayesian inference, each with trade-offs between computational cost and accuracy. However, a theoretical…

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

Estimation of small failure probabilities is one of the most important and challenging computational problems in reliability engineering. The failure probability is usually given by an integral over a high-dimensional uncertain parameter…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionised Bayesian data analysis over the years by making the direct computation of posterior probability densities feasible on modern workstations. However, the calculation of the prior…

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…

Completely automatic and adaptive non-parametric inference is a pie in the sky. The frequentist approach, best exemplified by the kernel estimators, has excellent asymptotic characteristics but it is very sensitive to the choice of…

The classical parametric and semiparametric Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) results are reconsidered in a non-classical setup allowing finite samples and model misspecification. In the case of a finite dimensional nuisance parameter we obtain…

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

We introduce an efficient MCMC sampling scheme to perform Bayesian inference in the M/G/1 queueing model given only observations of interdeparture times. Our MCMC scheme uses a combination of Gibbs sampling and simple Metropolis updates…

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling and inference. With the advent of Big Data, distributed and parallel variants of MCMC methods are attracting increased attention. In this…

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Bayesian inference requires approximation methods to become computable, but for most of them it is impossible to quantify how close the approximation is to the true posterior. In this work, we present a theorem upper-bounding the KL…

We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…

In this expository paper we abstract and describe a simple MCMC scheme for sampling from intractable target densities. The approach has been introduced in Gon\c{c}alves et al. (2017a) in the specific context of jump-diffusions, and is based…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…