相关论文: On the Computational Complexity of MCMC-based Esti…

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

In order to describe the extremal behaviour of some stochastic process $X$, approaches from univariate extreme value theory are typically generalized to the spatial domain. In particular, generalized peaks-over-threshold approaches allow…

There has been considerable interest in making Bayesian inference more scalable. In big data settings, most literature focuses on reducing the computing time per iteration, with less focused on reducing the number of iterations needed in…

In this paper, we rigorously derive Central Limit Theorems (CLT) for Bayesian two-layerneural networks in the infinite-width limit and trained by variational inference on a regression task. The different networks are trained via different…

We study the integration of functions with respect to an unknown density. We compare the simple Monte Carlo method (which is almost optimal for a certain large class of inputs) and compare it with the Metropolis algorithm (based on a…

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

This work develops rigorous theoretical basis for the fact that deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) is an effective tool for high-dimensional variable selection with rigorous uncertainty quantification. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric…

This article develops limit laws for network sampling based estimates of subgraph counts and clustering coefficient of a large population network, and uses them for predictive inference. A model based approach is used, where the population…

We give a complete expansion, at any accuracy order, for the iterated convolution of a complex valued integrable sequence in one space dimension. The remainders are estimated sharply with generalized Gaussian bounds. The result applies in…

Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478}, a vast literature has emerged on the sufficient…

The Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) algorithm is a Metropolis- Hastings MCMC algorithm designed to sample from a given target distribution \pi with Lebesgue density on R^N. RWM constructs a Markov chain by randomly proposing a new position…

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the predominant tool used in Bayesian parameter estimation for hierarchical models. When the model expands due to an increasing number of hierarchical levels, number of groups at a particular level, or…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are one of the most popular classes of algorithms for sampling from a target probability distribution. A rising trend in recent years consists in analyzing the convergence of MCMC algorithms using…

Divide-and-conquer methods use large-sample approximations to provide frequentist guarantees when each block of data is both small enough to facilitate efficient computation and large enough to support approximately valid inferences. When…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are powerful computational tools for analysis of complex statistical problems. However, their computational efficiency is highly dependent on the chosen proposal distribution, which is generally…