经济学
Economists often interpret estimates from linear regressions with log dependent variables as elasticities. However, the coefficients from log-log regressions estimate the elasticity of the geometric mean of $y_i|x_i$, not the arithmetic…
This paper studies mechanism design environments in which the designer does not know the distribution of agents' private information a priori and instead learns from agents' behavior induced by the mechanism itself. We formalize a notion of…
A central challenge in financial economics is understanding how credit networks form under informational noise. We introduce the concept of topological capital, arguing that banks increasingly rely on topological certification, interpreting…
Firms collect vast amounts of behavioral and geographical data on individuals. While behavioral data captures an individual's digital footprint, geographical data reflects their physical footprint. Given the significant privacy risks…
In June 2026, the UK government will set its carbon budget for the period 2038 to 2042, the seventh such carbon budget (CB7) since the Climate Change Act became law in 2008. For the first time, this carbon budget will be accompanied by a…
We study settings in which a researcher has an instrumental variable (IV) and seeks to evaluate the effects of a counterfactual policy that alters treatment assignment, such as a directive encouraging randomly assigned judges to release…
The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based…
As large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as autonomous agents in markets and organizations, their behavior in strategic environments becomes economically consequential. We document that off-the-shelf LLM agents exhibit systematic…
This paper considers the problem of estimating the variance of a sum of a triangular array of random vectors with heterogeneous means. When random vectors exhibit two-way cluster dependence or weak dependence, standard variance estimators…
We study optimization problems in which a linear functional is maximized over probability measures that are dominated by a given measure according to an integral stochastic order in an arbitrary dimension. We show that the following four…
Design-based simulations - procedures that hold realized outcomes fixed and generate variation by resampling treatment assignment or shocks - are widely used in both methodological and applied work to assess inference procedures. This paper…
Geopolitics is shaped by trade and borders. We develop a general-equilibrium model in which both are endogenously determined in a linear world. Their interaction rationalizes geopolitical outcomes that cannot be obtained when either trade…
Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are designed to disperse control, yet recent evidence shows that effective governance is often concentrated in a small number of participants. This note studies one simple mechanism behind that…
Chiappori et al. (2025) study several indices of assortativeness in matching, including the aggregate likelihood ratio and the odds ratio. We provide a counterexample showing that their axiomatization of the aggregate likelihood ratio is…
This paper derives new asymptotic results for the adaptive LASSO estimator in cointegrating regressions, allowing for uncertainty about whether the regressors are exact unit root processes. We study model selection probabilities, estimator…
Almost all countries in the world require banks to report suspicious transactions to national authorities. The reports are known as suspicious transaction or activity reports (we use the former term) and are intended to help authorities…
Consider an analyst who models a strategic situation using an incomplete information game. The true game may involve correlated, duplicated belief hierarchies, but the analyst lacks knowledge of the correlation structure and can only…
A principal uses payments conditioned on stochastic outcomes of a team project to elicit costly effort from the team members. We develop a multi-agent generalization of a classic first-order approach to contract optimization by leveraging…
For linear regression models with cross-section or panel data, it is natural to assume that the disturbances are clustered in two dimensions. However, the finite-sample properties of two-way cluster-robust tests and confidence intervals are…
This paper studies identification and estimation in semiparametric logit models when social networks are endogenous. In many applications, unobserved individual traits shape both the outcome of interest and the formation of social ties, so…