经济学
This paper revisits the classic instrument choice problem in a setting with consumption externalities, through the lens of robust mechanism design. A regulator can implement any incentive-compatible policy but is uncertain about how…
Social relationships are known to shape human behavior, yet when and how social ties influence strategic cognition remains unclear. We adopt a dual-measure approach that combines observed gameplay behavior with elicitation of…
This paper makes the Millennium Prize problem P vs NP operational in quantitative finance by studying cardinality-constrained portfolio selection. Starting from the convex Markowitz mean-variance program with CAPM-based expected returns (Rf…
We develop a tractable identification approach for strategic network formation models with both strategic link interdependence and individual unobserved heterogeneity (fixed effects). The key challenge is that endogenous network statistics…
Using transaction-level trade data from Polymarket's 2024 U.S. presidential election market, we study how prediction markets process shocks. We analyze three events: the Biden-Trump debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and Biden's…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
We develop a unified nonparametric framework for sharp partial identification and inference on inequality indices when the data contain coarsened observations of the variable of interest. We characterize the extremal allocations for all…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are becoming widely used to support various workflows across different disciplines, yet their potential in discrete choice modelling remains relatively unexplored. This work examines the potential of LLMs as…
A triangular structural panel data model with additive separable individual-specific effects is used to model the causal effect of a covariate on an outcome variable when there are unobservable confounders with some of them time-invariant.…
Estimation and counterfactual experiments in dynamic discrete choice models with large state spaces pose computational difficulties. This paper proposes a model-adaptive approach, based on the conjugate gradient (CG) method, to solve the…
This paper studies the properties of linear regression on centrality measures when network data is sparse and observed with error. We make three contributions in this setting. First, we show that OLS estimators can become inconsistent under…
We study dynamic mechanism design in a pure-exchange economy with privately observed idiosyncratic income. In the standard infinitely lived hidden-income benchmark of Green (1987) and Thomas-Worrall (1990), constrained-efficient allocations…
This paper points out that rational inattention is a nested regularized optimal transport problem. We use entropic optimal transport to establish the main results in Matejka and McKay (2015) and Caplin, Dean, and Leahy (2019) and extend…
This paper examines bilateral claims problems with lower and upper exclusion thresholds that determine whether an individual is excluded from initial gains or losses. We introduce the exclusion dilation operator, a method that transforms…
This paper introduces a new factor contributing to the decline in marriage and fertility: the growth of leisure technology. Over recent decades, high-income countries have experienced two notable shifts in household and family dynamics.…
We study a spatiotemporal service matching problem in which demand, heterogeneous in location and time sensitivity/preference, is to be assigned to service stations. The planner seeks to maximize social welfare, defined as total service…
Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage is a well established determinant of health in later life. Less is known about how early-life deprivation unfolds when individuals experience major institutional transformation and migration in…
Non-survey methods have been developed and applied for estimating regional input-output tables. However, there is an ongoing debate about the assumptions necessary for these methods and their accuracy. To address these issues, this study…
The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is imperative for predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and uses Transformed and…
The war of attrition with two-sided asymmetric information is a foundational model in political economy, yet it generically admits a continuum of perfect Bayesian equilibria. This paper characterizes the sources of equilibrium multiplicity.…