经济学
In this paper I revisit the interpretation of the linear instrumental variables (IV) estimand as a weighted average of conditional local average treatment effects (LATEs). I focus on a situation in which additional covariates are required…
Sequential equilibrium is one of the most fundamental refinements of Nash equilibrium for games in extensive form. However, it is not defined for extensive-form games in which a player can choose among a continuum of actions. We define a…
Between 1949 and 1980, every U.S. state mandated public schools to provide educational services for disabled students. This is one of the largest education reforms in U.S. history, but little is known about its impacts. Given scarce data in…
An economy, large or small, has traditionally been defined in terms of an explicit set of agents and an assignment of characteristics to each agent. But when individual agents are negligible, most economically relevant properties of an…
The start of a human's life can be characterized by two lotteries: that of your genes (nature) and the family you were born into (nurture). These set in motion a trajectory, from birth onward, in health and human capital. Leveraging three…
We develop a nonparametric approach to identify and estimate consumer preferences and unobserved heterogeneity under nonlinear price schedules. Leveraging variation across multiple price schedules, we show that both the utility function and…
Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…
A forward-looking agent observes signals of a state that follows a Gaussian AR(1) process. He balances the cost of having imprecise beliefs with the cost of acquiring more precise signals. I characterize his optimal information acquisition…
Using only retrospective data, we study the problem of predicting treatment effects for the same treatment/policy implemented in a different location or time period. We propose a distributionally robust estimator that minimizes the…
We study welfare analysis for policy changes when supply and demand behavior are only partially known. We augment the robust approach pioneered by Kang and Vasserman (2025) by incorporating the supply side. We posit intervals of feasible…
We characterize the family of utility functions satisfying linear fractional relative risk aversion (LFRRA) in terms of the Gauss hypergeometric functions. We apply this family, which nests various utility functions used in different…
Without the assumption of complete, shared awareness, it is necessary to consider communication between agents who may entertain different representations of the world. A syntactic (language-based) approach provides powerful tools to…
We model a market for data where an incumbent and a challenger compete for data from a producer. The incumbent has access to an exclusive data producer, and it uses this exclusive access, together with economies of scope in the aggregation…
We consider bootstrap inference in predictive (or Granger-causality) regressions when the parameter of interest may lie on the boundary of the parameter space, here defined by means of a smooth inequality constraint. For instance, this…
This paper studies how communication across experts prior to aggregation by a decision-maker affects the efficiency of forecast combination. When experts exchange information before reporting their forecasts, their signals become correlated…
In this study, we propose a test for the coefficient randomness in autoregressive models where the autoregressive coefficient is local to unity, which is empirically relevant given the results of earlier studies. Under this specification,…
We establish theoretical results about the low frequency contamination (i.e., long memory effects) induced by general nonstationarity for estimates such as the sample autocovariance and the periodogram, and deduce consequences for…
We propose a new simple procedure called Population-Mean-Based Aggregation (PMBA) that enables a principal to "aggregate" information about an unknown state of the world from agents without understanding the information structure among…
Coordination is an important aspect of innovative contexts, where: the more innovative a course of action, the more uncertain its outcome. To study the interplay of coordination and informational ``complexity'', I embed a beauty-contest…
Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific…