经济学
There is growing experimental evidence that $Q$-learning agents may learn to charge supracompetitive prices. We provide the first theoretical explanation for this behavior in infinite repeated games. Firms update their pricing policies…
This paper investigates the impact of objective financial knowledge, confidence in one's financial skills, and digital financial literacy on individuals' decisions to seek financial advice from robo-advice platforms. Using microdata from…
This paper investigates the use of synthetic control methods for causal inference in macroeconomic settings when dealing with possibly nonstationary data. While the synthetic control approach has gained popularity for estimating…
This study explores the interdependent relationship between consumer credit and consumer confidence in the United States using monthly data from January 1978 to August 2024. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis…
Two agents trade an item in a simultaneous offer setting, where the exchange takes place if and only if the buyer's bid price weakly exceeds the seller's ask price. Each agent is randomly assigned the buyer or seller role. Both agents are…
In industry, online randomized controlled experiment (a.k.a. A/B experiment) is a standard approach to measure the impact of a causal change. These experiments have small treatment effect to reduce the potential blast radius. As a result,…
We consider a class of economic growth models that includes the classical Ramsey--Cass--Koopmans capital accumulation model and verify that, under several assumptions, the value function of the model is the unique viscosity solution to the…
The Random Utility Model (RUM) is the leading model to represent the aggregate choices of a heterogeneous population of preference maximizers. We show that if (and only if) preferences are sufficiently uncorrelated, RUM choices can also be…
A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…
Building on the idea that lack of experience is a source of errors but that experience should reduce them, we model agents' behavior using a stochastic choice model (logit quantal response), leaving endogenous the accuracy of their choices.…
Q-learning can be described as an all-purpose automaton that provides estimates (Q-values) of the continuation values associated with each available action and follows the naive policy of almost always choosing the action with highest…
Global financial systems are undergoing strategic shifts as geopolitical tensions reshape international trade and payments. The United States (US)-China trade war, sanctions regimes, and rising concerns over the weaponization of financial…
We analyze the vulnerability of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to speculative exploitation via their redemption mechanisms. Studying a game-theoretic model of repeated auctions for governance shares with speculators, we…
Dynasties have long dominated Philippine politics. Despite the theoretical consensus that dynastic rule erodes democratic accountability, there is limited empirical evidence establishing dynasties' true impact on development. A key…
This paper proposes a Conditional Method Confidence Set (CMCS) which allows to select the best subset of forecasting methods with equal predictive ability conditional on a specific economic regime. The test resembles the Model Confidence…
We use the fertile ground of betting markets to study the anticipation of major news in financial markets. While there is a considerable body of literature on the accuracy and efficiency of betting markets after important in-match events,…
I study the impact of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973--1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use…
I develop a continuous-time model in which an incumbent batch-service provider faces stochastic passenger arrivals and must decide when to dispatch under the threat of customer defection to a faster entrant. The incumbent's problem is…
We study the Functional PCA (FPCA) forecasting method in application to functions of intraday returns on Bitcoin. We show that improved interval forecasts of future return functions are obtained when the conditional heteroscedasticity of…
This paper explores an innovative financial concept--Academic Research Output Futures (AROFs)--which aim to bring the tools of market-based finance into the realm of academic research. At the heart of this idea lies a cash-settled futures…