经济学

The proportional odds cumulative logit model (POCLM) is a standard regression model for an ordinal response. Ordinality of predictors can be incorporated by monotonicity constraints for the corresponding parameters. It is shown that…

We demonstrate that the set of cost distributions under which the optimal strategy for maximizing compliance (or more generally, effort) in a binary choice environment is identical to the optimal strategy for maximizing the accuracy of the…

Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from…

This study investigates the forecasting performance of Bayesian shrinkage priors in predicting Thai inflation in a univariate setup, with a particular interest in comparing those more advance shrinkage prior to a likelihood…

What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance…

We examine the problem of assigning teachers to public schools over time when teachers have tenured positions and can work simultaneously in multiple schools. To do this, we investigate a dynamic many-to-many school choice problem where…

Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platforms have never been…

We propose a practical and robust method for making inferences on average treatment effects estimated by synthetic controls. We develop a $K$-fold cross-fitting procedure for bias correction. To avoid the difficult estimation of the…

This paper introduces a novel approach to investigate the dynamics of state distributions, which accommodate both cross-sectional distributions of repeated panels and intra-period distributions of a time series observed at high frequency.…

This study examines the dynamics of customer behavior with trial and return options in omnichannel retailing, where retailers face challenges in integrating physical and online stores. Recently, major retailers have begun offering customers…

The impact of international tourism on biodiversity risks has received considerable attention, yet quantitative research in this field remains relatively limited. This study constructs a biodiversity risk index for 155 countries and regions…

In this study, I investigate the dynamic decision problem with a finite parameter space when the functional form of conditional expected rewards is misspecified. Traditional algorithms, such as Thompson Sampling, guarantee neither an…

This research study examined how the number of reviews, review scores product involvement, and product review valence affect consumers' shopping decisions. Specifically, two online experiments were conducted to examine how product review…

The given paper emphasizes the importance of the Railway Silk Road for promoting Georgia's economic growth and development. The article notes that economic integration in the region increases cargo turnover in Central Asia and the Caucasus,…

In this study, the impact of research and development (R&D) expenditures on the value added of the agricultural sector in Iran was investigated for the period 1971-2021. For data analysis, the researchers utilized the ARDL econometric model…

The literature documents the effects of the pandemic on birthrate, birthweight, and pregnancy complications. This study contributes to this growing body of research by examining multiple facets of the phenomenon. Using the 2012-2022…

Recent literature reports mixed evidence on whether birthweight has decreased during the pandemic. In this paper, we use New York's hospital inpatient discharge data and contribute to this ongoing debate in multiple ways. First, we…

Using data from the U.S. Census Bureaus Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), I examine the adoption of AI among US firms at national, state, industry, and firm size levels. I find that adoption remains overall low (only around 7% of…

I consider the problem of classifying individual behavior in a simple setting of outcome performativity where the behavior the algorithm seeks to classify is itself dependent on the algorithm. I show in this context that the most accurate…

Researchers are often interested in evaluating the impact of a policy on the entire (or specific parts of the) distribution of the outcome of interest. In this paper, I provide a method to recover the whole distribution of the untreated…