经济学

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…

I study how a startup with uncertainty over product quality and no knowledge of the underlying diffusion network optimally chooses initial seeds. To ensure widespread adoption when the product is good while minimizing negative perceptions…

Triple difference-in-differences designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in empirical work. Surveying the literature, we find that most applications include controls. We show that this standard practice is generally biased for…

This paper studies the problem of efficient estimation of panel data models in the presence of an increasing number of incidental parameters. We formulate the dynamic panel as a simultaneous equations system, and derive the efficiency bound…

Significant shifts in the composition of consumer spending as a result of the COVID-19 crisis can complicate the interpretation of official inflation data, which are calculated by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) based on a fixed…

We use text-mining techniques to measure the accessibility and quality of information within the texts of interest rate announcements published by the Bank of Israel over the past decade. We find that comprehension of interest rate…

This paper develops statistical methods for determining the number of components in panel data finite mixture regression models with regression errors independently distributed as normal or more flexible normal mixtures. We analyze the…

We study the accuracy of forecasts in the diffusion index forecast model with possibly weak loadings. The default option to construct forecasts is to estimate the factors through principal component analysis (PCA) on the available predictor…

We design a portfolio construction framework and implement an active investment strategy utilizing momentum and trend-following signals across multiple asset classes and asset class risk factors. We quantify the performance of this strategy…

Transport infrastructure is vital to the functioning of cities. However, assessing the impact of transport policies on urban mobility and behaviour is often costly and time-consuming, particularly in low-data environments. We demonstrate…

We examine the impact of mandatory export proceeds repatriation on exchange rate stability in three emerging markets, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Turkey, using the Generalized Synthetic Control framework. By modeling exchange rate stochastic…

In the framework of semiparametric distribution regression, we consider the problem of comparing the conditional distribution functions corresponding to two samples. In contrast to testing for exact equality, we are interested in the (null)…

We study how competitive forces may drive firms to inefficiently acquire startup talent. In our model, two rival firms have the capacity to acquire and integrate a startup operating in an orthogonal market. We show that firms may pursue…

This paper studies the identification of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under unconfoundedness when covariate overlap is partial. A formal diagnostic is proposed to characterize empirical support -- the subset of the…

Technological knowledge evolves not only through the generation of new ideas, but also through the reinterpretation of existing ones. Reinterpretations lead to changes in the classification of knowledge, that is, reclassification. This…

The global energy transition toward net-zero emissions by 2050 is expected to increase the share of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) in the energy mix. As a result, industrial actors will encounter more complex market conditions,…

This paper studies the welfare impact of discrete improvements to global public goods in the context of the Global Positioning System (GPS). Specifically, I find that by disabling Selective Availability in May, 2000, and thus significantly…

This research examines the persistent challenge of health inequalities in India, departing from the conventional focus on aggregate improvements in mortality rates. While India has achieved progress in overall health indicators since…

Background: As value-based care expands across the U.S. healthcare system, reducing health disparities has become a priority. Social determinants of health (SDoH) indices, like the widely used Area Deprivation Index (ADI), guide efforts to…

This paper examines competitive information disclosure in search markets with a mix of savvy consumers, who search costlessly, and inexperienced consumers, who face positive search costs. Savvy consumers incentivize truthful disclosure;…