经济学

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories…

An axiomatic approach to macroeconomics based on the mathematical structure of thermodynamics is presented. It deduces relations between aggregate properties of an economy, concerning quantities and flows of goods and money, prices and the…

An analyst observes the frequency with which a decision maker (DM) takes actions, but not the frequency conditional on payoff-relevant states. We ask when the analyst can rationalize the DM's choices as if the DM first learns something…

This paper introduces a novel goodness-of-fit test technique for parametric conditional distributions. The proposed tests are based on a residual marked empirical process, for which we develop a conditional Principal Component Analysis. The…

We study the identification of binary choice models with fixed effects. We propose a condition called sign saturation and show that this condition is sufficient for identifying the model. In particular, this condition can guarantee…

Researchers in urban and regional studies increasingly deal with spatial data that reflects geographic location and spatial relationships. As a framework for dealing with the unique nature of spatial data, various spatial regression models…

I discuss economic and social sources of inequality and elaborate on the role of social networks in inequality, economic immobility, and economic inefficiencies. The lens of social networks clarifies how the entanglement of people's…

I propose a flexible structural model to estimate peer effects across various quantiles of the peer outcome distribution. The model allows peers with low, intermediate, and high outcomes to exert distinct influences, thereby capturing more…

We introduce a model of content moderation for sale, where a platform can channel attention in two ways: direct steering that makes content visible to consumers and certification that controls what consumers know about the content. The…

By capturing outliers, volatility clustering, and tail dependence in the asset return distribution, we build a sophisticated model to predict the downside risk of the global financial market. We further develop a dynamic regime switching…

Alice wishes to reveal the state $X$ to Bob, if he knows some other information $Y$ also known to her. If Bob does not, she wishes to reveal nothing about $X$ at all. When can Alice accomplish this? We provide a simple necessary and…

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a powerful tool for economic research, enabling large-scale simulation and policy optimization. However, applying AI effectively requires simulation platforms for scalable training and evaluation-yet…

Conformity with Benford's Law is widely used to detect irregularities in numerical datasets, particularly in accounting, finance, and economics. However, the statistical tools commonly used for this purpose (such as Chi-squared, MAD, or KS)…

This study examines whether the tariff policies delivered on promises to revitalize American manufacturing and create jobs. Using county-level business application data from 2018-2025, we analyze the relationship between tariff…

There is growing enthusiasm about the potential for humans and AI to collaborate by leveraging their respective strengths. Yet in practice, this promise often falls short. This paper uses an online experiment to identify non-instrumental…

This paper examines the effects of U.S. presidential election cycles on sectoral stock markets. Using a high-frequency identification approach, I construct a novel "election shock'' series, which captures exogenous surprises in election…

We study how Generative AI (GenAI) adoption is reshaping work. While prior studies show that GenAI enhances role-level productivity and task composition, its influence on skills - the fundamental enablers of task execution, and the ultimate…

In contrast to problems of interference in (exogenous) treatments, models of interference in unit-specific (endogenous) outcomes do not usually produce a reduced-form representation where outcomes depend on other units' treatment status…

This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first…

We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle…