应用统计
Regulatory efforts to protect against algorithmic bias have taken on increased urgency with rapid advances in large language models (LLMs), which are machine learning models that can achieve performance rivaling human experts on a wide…
Graphical models and likelihood ratios can be used by forensic scientists to compare support given by evidence to propositions put forward by competing parties during court proceedings. Such models can also be used to evaluate support for…
Phase 1-2 designs provide a methodological advance over phase 1 designs for dose finding by using both clinical response and toxicity. A phase 1-2 trial still may fail to select a truly optimal dose. because early response is not a perfect…
One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches.…
We consider a formal statistical design that allows simultaneous enrollment of a main cohort and a backfill cohort of patients in a dose-finding trial. The goal is to accumulate more information at various doses to facilitate dose…
As an important tool in financial risk management, stress testing aims to evaluate the stability of financial portfolios under some potential large shocks from extreme yet plausible scenarios of risk factors. The effectiveness of a stress…
Modern high-throughput sequencing assays efficiently capture not only gene expression and different levels of gene regulation but also a multitude of genome variants. Focused analysis of alternative alleles of variable sites at homologous…
Analyses of occurrences of residential burglary in urban areas have shown that crime rates are not spatially homogeneous: rates vary across the network of city streets, resulting in some areas being far more susceptible to crime than…
Computed tomography (CT) has been a powerful diagnostic tool since its emergence in the 1970s. Using CT data, three-dimensional (3D) structures of human internal organs and tissues, such as blood vessels, can be reconstructed using…
An assurance calculation is a Bayesian alternative to a power calculation. One may be performed to aid the planning of a clinical trial, specifically setting the sample size or to support decisions about whether or not to perform a study.…
Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication of uncertainty in material flow analyses (MFAs), and a systematic update of uncertainty as new data become available. However, the method is undermined by the difficultly of defining…
We suggest a multilevel model, to represent aggregate train-passing events from the Staffordshire bridge monitoring system. We formulate a combined model from simple units, representing strain envelopes (of each train passing) for two types…
Sensor measurements are mission-critical for monitoring and controlling power systems because they provide real-time insight into the grid operating condition; however, confidence in these insights depends greatly on the quality of the…
Reviews conducted by the National Academy of Sciences (2009) and the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) concluded that the field of forensic firearm comparisons has not been demonstrated to be scientifically…
This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model specifically designed to address challenges in Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) for time-dependent problems in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. The unique…
We compare three graphical methods for displaying evidence in a legal case: Wigmore Charts, Bayesian Networks and Chain Event Graphs. We find that these methods are aimed at three distinct audiences, respectively lawyers, forensic…
Millions of Americans must attend mandatory court dates every year. To boost appearance rates, jurisdictions nationwide are increasingly turning to automated reminders, but previous research offers mixed evidence on their effectiveness. In…
The Network Scale-up Method (NSUM) uses social networks and answers to "How many X's do you know?" questions to estimate sizes of groups excluded by standard surveys. This paper addresses the bias caused by varying average social network…
It is often necessary to introduce the main characteristics of population mobility dynamics to model critical social phenomena such as the economy, violence, transmission of information, or infectious diseases. In this work, we focus on…
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive and in-vivo imaging technique essential for measuring brain activity. Functional connectivity is used to study associations between brain regions, either while study subjects…