统计金融
Using the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and Bitcoin daily data, we document that sentiment extremity predicts excess uncertainty beyond realized volatility. Extreme fear and extreme greed regimes exhibit significantly higher spreads than…
We show that a deep neural network (DNN) trained to construct a stochastic discount factor (SDF) admits a sharp additive decomposition that separates nonlinear characteristic discovery from the pricing rule that aggregates them. The…
Micro-structural models of contagion and systemic risk emphasize that shock propagation is inherently multi-channel, spanning counterparty exposures, short-term funding and roll-over risk, securities cross-holdings, and common-asset…
Fluctuations in stock prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors that go beyond mere historical data. These factors, themselves influenced by external forces, encompass inter-stock dynamics, broader economic factors, various…
Finding similar bonds remains challenging in fixed-income analytics, as numerical financial attributes often overshadow categorical non-financial ones such as issuer sector and domicile. This paper shows that these categorical attributes…
This paper examines whether SEC Form 4 insider purchase filings predict abnormal returns in U.S. microcap stocks. The analysis covers 17,237 open-market purchases across 1,343 issuers from 2018 through 2024, restricted to market…
This study examines the effects of Trump-era tariffs on financial market efficiency by applying multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to the return and absolute return time series of six major financial assets: the S\&P 500, SSEC,…
Financial markets exhibit temporal organization that is not fully captured by volatility measures or linear correlation structure. We study a null validated topological approach for quantifying market complexity and apply it to Bitcoin…
We study whether generative AI can automate feature discovery in U.S. equities. Using large language models with retrieval-augmented generation and structured/programmatic prompting, we synthesize economically motivated features from…
Prediction markets offer a natural testbed for trading agents: contracts have binary payoffs, prices can be interpreted as probabilities, and realized performance depends critically on market microstructure, fees, and settlement risk. We…
This study addresses the low-volatility Chinese Public Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) market, proposing a large language model (LLM)-driven trading framework based on multi-agent collaboration. The system constructs four types of…
Overfitting remains a critical challenge in data-driven financial modeling, where machine learning (ML) systems learn spurious patterns in historical prices and fail out of sample and in deployment. This paper introduces the GT-Score, a…
Time series encountered in practice are rarely stationary. When the data distribution changes, a forecasting model trained on past observations can lose accuracy. We study a small-footprint test-time adaptation (TTA) framework for causal…
The balancing market in the energy sector plays a critical role in physically and financially balancing the supply and demand. Modeling dynamics in the balancing market can provide valuable insights and prognosis for power grid stability…
We propose a microstructural model for the order flow in financial markets that distinguishes between {\it core orders} and {\it reaction flow}, both modeled as Hawkes processes. This model has a natural scaling limit that reconciles a…
Time series forecasting is important in finance domain. Financial time series (TS) patterns are influenced by both short-term public opinions and medium-/long-term policy and market trends. Hence, processing multi-period inputs becomes…
Overparameterized models have recently challenged conventional learning theory by exhibiting improved generalization beyond the interpolation limit, a phenomenon known as benign overfitting. This work introduces Adaptive Benign Overfitting…
Purpose: The article aims to visualise in a single graph fish and meat processing company groups in Spain with respect to long-term solvency, energy, waste and water intensity and gender employment gap. Design/methodology/approach: The…
This paper investigates the impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) on stock-bond correlation dynamics in the United States. Using daily data on major U.S. stock indices and the 10-year Treasury bond from 2015 to 2025, we estimate…
We use the discrete Ollivier-Ricci graph curvature with Ricci flow to examine the intrinsic geometry of financial markets through the empirical correlation graph of the NASDAQ 100 index. Our main result is the development of a technique to…