种群与进化
Biological control strategies against mosquito-borne diseases--such as the sterile insect technique (SIT), RIDL, and Wolbachia-based releases--require reliable estimates of dispersal and survival of released males. We propose a…
Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century. Although over the past decades, highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectious diseases and are…
Why do human populations remain vulnerable to collapse, even when they are large? Classical demographic theory predicts that volatility in growth should decline rapidly with size due to the averaging effects of the law of large numbers. As…
Ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) encode the complete genealogical history of a population of recombining lineages. ARGs, and their succinct representation, tree sequences, are increasingly central to modern population genetics methods,…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, estimating the total deaths averted by vaccination has been of great public health interest. Instead of estimating total deaths averted by vaccination among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, some…
Microbial ecosystems exhibit a surprising amount of functionally relevant diversity at all levels of taxonomic resolution, presenting a significant challenge for most modeling frameworks. A long-standing hope of theoretical ecology is that…
Additional food sources for an introduced predator are known to increase its efficiency on a target pest. In this context, inhibiting factors such as interference, predator competition, and the introduction of temporally dependent quantity…
From the formation of ice in small clusters of water molecules to the mass raids of army ant colonies, the emergent behavior of collectives depends critically on their size. At the same time, common wisdom holds that such behaviors are…
Phylogenetic trees represent certain species and their likely ancestors. In such a tree, present-day species are leaves and an edge from u to v indicates that u is an ancestor of v. Weights on these edges indicate the phylogenetic distance.…
Progress of the COVID-19 pandemic was quantified, in the first instance, using the daily number of positive cases recorded by the national public health authorities. Averaged over a seven-day window, the daily incidence of COVID-19 in…
Although maturation delays are frequently included in population models, researchers rarely account for mortality between birth and maturity. Previous discrete population models have included mortality of immature individuals during the…
Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…
We investigate solutions to the TAP equation, a phenomenological implementation of the Theory of the Adjacent Possible. Several implementations of TAP are studied, with potential applications in a range of topics including economics, social…
Climate change and fisheries jointly shape the resilience of the Barents Sea marine ecosystem, yet the recovery of key fish populations to climate and anthropogenic disturbances requires further investigation. This study examines how…
Metagenomic data has significantly advanced microbiome research by employing ecological models, particularly in personalised medicine. The generalised Lotka-Volterra (gLV) model is commonly used to understand microbial interactions and…
This study investigates the impact of time since fire on bird community composition in Southern California chaparral ecosystems. We surveyed avian richness and abundance across 14 sites representing a 0 to 25 year post-fire chronosequence…
Ecological models traditionally explain stability and coexistence through pairwise interactions among species. These interactions can also involve groups of three or more species, higher-order interactions, which recent theory suggests can…
We consider the relationship between thermodynamics, fitness, and Darwinian selection in autocatalytic molecular replicators. We uncover a thermodynamic bound that relates fitness, replication rate, and thermodynamic affinity of…
Everyone can see that over the last 150 years, theoretical ecology has become considerably more mathematical. But what is the nature of this phenomenon? Are mathematics applied, as in the use of statistical tests, for example, or are they…
To promote climate adaptation and mitigation, it is crucial to understand stakeholder perspectives and knowledge gaps on land use and climate changes. Stakeholders across 21 European islands were consulted on climate and land use change…