种群与进化

Phylogeny is the field of modelling the temporal discrete dynamics of speciation. Complex models can nowadays be studied using the Approximate Bayesian Computation approach which avoids likelihood calculations. The field's progression is…

This paper builds up on T. Martinez-Coronado, A. Mir, F. Rossello and G. Valiente's work "A balance index for phylogenetic trees based on quartets", introducing a new balance index for trees. We show here that this balance index, in the…

In this work we study the limit distribution of an appropriately normalized cophenetic index of the pure-birth tree conditioned on $n$ contemporary tips. We show that this normalized phylogenetic balance index is a submartingale that…

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process plays a major role in the analysis of the evolution of phenotypic traits along phylogenies. The standard OU process includes drift and stabilizing selection and assumes that species evolve independently.…

In this paper I address the question - how large is a phylogenetic sample I propose a definition of a phylogenetic effective sample size for Brownian motion and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes - the regression effective sample size. I discuss…

We consider a branching particle system where particles reproduce according to the pure birth Yule process with the birth rate L, conditioned on the observed number of particles to be equal n. Particles are assumed to move independently on…

We consider a stochastic evolutionary model for a phenotype developing amongst n related species with unknown phylogeny. The unknown tree is modelled by a Yule process conditioned on n contemporary nodes. The trait value is assumed to…

In this paper, we develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, suitable for COVID-19. This extension incorporates the transmission due to pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Furthermore, this model also…

We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…

Immune repertoires rely on diversity of T-cell and B-cell receptors to protect us against foreign threats. The ability to recognize a wide variety of pathogens is linked to the number of different clonotypes expressed by an individual. Out…

Viruses evolve in the background of host immune systems that exert selective pressure and drive viral evolutionary trajectories. This interaction leads to different evolutionary patterns in antigenic space. Examples observed in nature…

To recognize pathogens, B and T lymphocytes are endowed with a wide repertoire of receptors generated stochastically by V(D)J recombination. Measuring and estimating the diversity of these receptors is of great importance for understanding…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…

Since the beginning of the corona pandemic in March 2020, various parameters for describing the spread of the disease have been specified for Germany in addition to the daily infection figures (new infections and total infections), which…

The blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) is a dominant ecological species of high commercial value. Spawning stock and recruitment of the Chesapeake Bay population declined by 80% in the 1990s. After severe management actions were implemented in…

Repeated asymptomatic screening for SARS-CoV-2 promises to control spread of the virus but would require too many resources to implement at scale. Group testing is promising for screening more people with fewer test resources: multiple…

For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

We develop a trait-based model founded on the hypothesis that biological systems evolve and organize to maximize entropy production by dissipating chemical and electromagnetic potentials over longer time scales than abiotic processes by…