种群与进化
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to…
To understand the biodiversity of an ecosystem cannot be understood by solely analyzing the pair relations of competing species. Instead, we should consider multi-point interactions because the presence of a third party could change the…
We consider interactions between players in groups of size $d\geq2$ with payoffs that not only depend on the strategies used in the group but also fluctuate at random over time. An individual can adopt either cooperation or defection as…
Classical studies on aspiration-based dynamics suggest that a dissatisfied individual changes strategy without taking into account the success of others. This promotes defection spreading. The imitation-based dynamics allow individuals to…
The reproductive habits of helminths are important for the study of the dynamics of their transmission. For populations of parasites distributed by Poisson or negative binomial models, these habits have already been studied. However, there…
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation…
The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of…
The interplay of biological, social, structural and random factors makes disease forecasting extraordinarily complex. The course of an epidemic exhibits average growth dynamics determined by features of the pathogen and the population, yet…
Environmental fluctuations can create population-depleted areas and even extinct areas for the population. This effect is more severe in the presence of the Allee effect (decreasing growth rate at low population densities). Dispersal inside…
We present a new method for analyzing stochastic epidemic models under minimal assumptions. The method, dubbed DSA, is based on a simple yet powerful observation, namely that population-level mean-field trajectories described by a system of…
We introduce cognitive-affective maps (CAMs) as a novel tool to assess individual experiences and belief systems. CAMs were first presented by the cognitive scientist and philosopher Paul Thagard as a graphical representation of a mental…
We argue that information from countries who had earlier COVID-19 surges can be used to inform another country's current model, then generating what we call back-to-the-future (BTF) projections. We show that these projections can be used to…
Epilepsy is a disorder of the nervous system that can affect people of any age group. With roughly 50 million people worldwide diagnosed with the disorder, it is one of the most common neurological disorders. The EEG is an indispensable…
Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages…
We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all of them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found an infection fatality ratio of 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and identified male sex, age >70 years, cardiovascular…
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 {\deg}C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases…
The origin and early evolution of eukaryotes are one of the major transitions in the evolution of life on earth. One of its most interesting aspects is the emergence of cellular organelles, their dynamics, their functions, and their…
Star-shaped branching patterns of genealogies are common in marine species. High-fecundity marine populations are characterized by low ratios of effective to actual population size, which reflect high variance in reproductive success among…
The observation that phenotypic variability is ubiquitous in isogenic populations has led to a multitude of experimental and theoretical studies seeking to probe the causes and consequences of this variability. Whether it be in the context…
Resources are rarely distributed uniformly within a population. Heterogeneity in the concentration of a drug, the quality of breeding sites, or wealth can all affect evolutionary dynamics. In this study, we represent a collection of…