种群与进化
Background. During 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by the emergence of lineages with increased fitness. For most of these variants, quantitative information is scarce on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period…
Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behaviour, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behaviour, and…
The Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) model successfully reproduces some of the main features of simple cyclic predator-prey systems with interspecific competition observed in nature. Still, lattice-based simulations of the spatial stochastic RPS…
We consider an exponentially growing population of cells undergoing mutations and ask about the effect of reproductive fluctuations (genetic drift) on its long-term evolution. We combine first step analysis with the stochastic dynamics of a…
The quarantine of identified close contacts has been vital to reducing transmission rates and averting secondary infection risk before symptom onset and by asymptomatic cases. The effectiveness of this contact tracing strategy to mitigate…
An outbreak of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 that began around mid-June 2021 in Sydney, Australia, quickly developed into a nation-wide epidemic. The ongoing epidemic is of major concern as the Delta variant is more infectious…
The area of population dynamics has a rich history of the development and analysis of models of biological and social phenomena using ordinary differential equations. This paper describes a method for understanding the influence one…
We develop a Bayesian inference framework to quantify uncertainties in epidemiological models. We use SEIJR and SIJR models involving populations of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, dead and recovered individuals to infer from…
Context - Prioritising is likely to differ depending on the species considered for connectivity assessments, leading to a lack of consensual decisions for territorial planning. Objectives - The objective was to assess the relevance of…
The severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 spread globally very quickly, causing great concern at the international level due to the severity of the associated respiratory disease, the so-called COVID-19. Considering Rio de…
During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
An Allee effect occurs when the per-capita growth rate increases at low densities. Here, we investigate the evolutionary stability of a partial migration population with migrant population experiencing Allee effects. Partial migration is a…
We study a nonhierarchical tritrophic system, whose predator-prey interactions are described by the rock-paper-scissors game rules. In our stochastic simulations, individuals may move strategically towards the direction with more…
In the subtropical gyres, phytoplankton rely on eddies for transporting nutrients from depth to the euphotic zone. But, what controls the rate of nutrient supply for new production? We show that vertical nutrient flux depends both on the…
Mass vaccination produces a reduction in virus circulation, but also evolutive pressure towards the appearance of virus-resistant strains. We discuss the balance between these two effects, in particular when the mass vaccination takes place…
Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…
Spatial separation is often included in models of ethnic divergence but it has also been realised that urban subcultures can, and frequently do, emerge in sympatry. Previous research tended to attribute this phenomenon to the human tendency…
Homogeneity across lineages is a common assumption in phylogenetics according to which nucleotide substitution rates remain constant in time and do not depend on lineages. This is a simplifying hypothesis which is often adopted to make the…
This paper investigates the effect of the structure of the contact network on the dynamics of the epidemic outbreak. In particular, we focus on the peak number of critically infected nodes (PCIN), determining the maximum workload of…