种群与进化
Zoonotic diseases spread through pathogens-infected animal carriers. In the case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), evidence supports that the main carriers are fruit bats and non-human primates. Further, EVD spread is a multi-factorial problem…
Biological evolution of a population is governed by the fitness landscape, which is a map from genotype to fitness. However, a fitness landscape depends on the organisms environment, and evolution in changing environments is still poorly…
Patterns in complex systems store hidden information of the system which is needed to be explored. We present a simple model of cytokine and T-cells interaction and studied the model within stochastic framework by constructing Master…
Identifying early warning signs of sudden population changes and mechanisms leading to regime shifts are highly desirable in population biology. In this paper, a two-trophic ecosystem comprising of two species of predators, competing for…
Here we show that herd immunity is not a measure we can implement, trust, control or depend on, and that waiting for herd immunity to play a role is tantamount to hope for the best. Herd immunity is not some protection, as it has been…
We consider a couple of models for the dynamics of the populations of two interacting species, inspired by Lotka-Volterra's classical equations. The novelty of this work is that the interaction terms are non local and the interaction occurs…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
We establish a theoretical framework to address evolutionary dynamics of spatial games under strong selection. As the selection intensity tends to infinity, strategy competition unfolds in the deterministic way of winners taking all. We…
COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future…
We consider the Crow Kimura model, modified via stochastic resetting. There are two principally different situations: First, when due to resetting the system jumps to the low fitness state, everything is rather simple in this case, we have…
The initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic hit Guatemala on March 2020. On a country scale, the epidemic has undergone a fairly well-known and distinguishable initial phase, reaching its peak on mid July 2020. However, the detailed picture…
1. Inferring ecological interactions is hard because we often lack suitable parametric representations to portray them. Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) provide a way of estimating interactions nonparametrically from time…
Stability is a desirable property of complex ecosystems. If a community of interacting species is at a stable equilibrium point then it is able to withstand small perturbations to component species' abundances without suffering adverse…
Phylogenetic (i.e. leaf-labeled) trees play a fundamental role in evolutionary research. A typical problem is to reconstruct such trees from data like DNA alignments (whose columns are often referred to as characters), and a simple…
The concept of fitness is central to evolution, but it quantifies only the expected number of offspring an individual will produce. The actual number of offspring is also subject to noise, arising from environmental or demographic…
In this paper, we investigate the consequences of dormancy in the `rare mutation' and `large population' regime of stochastic adaptive dynamics. Starting from an individual-based micro-model, we first derive the polymorphic evolution…
Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
The paper was suggested by a brief note of the second author about the application of the Hubbert curve to predict decay of resource exploitation. A further suggestion came from the interpretation of the Hubbert curve in terms of a specific…
In this work we demonstrate how to automate parts of the infectious disease-control policy-making process via performing inference in existing epidemiological models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing the posterior…